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In recent years, Brazil has achieved substantial progress in capital market development by building a diversified investor base and expanding the menu of available financial instruments. In this context, we evaluated the invested Brazilian market portfolio for a period spanning 2005–15. This is a portfolio of all assets proportionally weighted by their market capitalization, and it is divided in eight broad categories: government bonds, equities, bank funding bonds, corporate bonds, real-estate, agribusiness, private-equity, and credit bonds. While the paper focuses on stylized facts related to market size, composition weighting and changes over time, the estimated market portfolio contains important information for policy makers and market participants alike.
Capital market --- Capital market. --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Investments: Stocks --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- International Finance: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- International Financial Markets --- Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Sovereign bonds --- Stocks --- Bonds --- Stock markets --- Financial markets --- Financial instruments --- Stock exchanges --- Brazil
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We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative macroeconomic forecast revisions; the opposite holds for procyclical variables. Industries that hedge bad FDIF news earn low returns on FOMC announcement days, but high returns on non-FOMC days. The opposite holds for FDIF-exposed industries, and the return differences are large. Controlling for FDIF exposure, rate-based policy surprise measures are not priced in the cross-section of industry returns.
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