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This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Fiscal policy --- Business cycles --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Econometric models. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Energy industries --- Oil industries --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Energy: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Fiscal stance --- Expenditure --- Oil --- Expenditures, Public --- Saudi Arabia

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Sharing economic benefits equitably across all segments of society includes addressing the specific challenges of different generations. At present, youth and elderly are particularly vulnerable to poverty relative to adults in their middle years. Broad-based policies should aim to foster youth integration into the labor market and ensure adequate income and health care support for the elderly. Turning to the intergenerational dimension, everyone should have the same chances in life, regardless of their family background. Policies that promote social mobility include improving access to high-quality care and education starting from a very early age, supporting lifelong learning, effective social protection schemes, and investing in infrastructure and other services to reduce spatial segregation.

Korea, Republic of --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Education and Inequality --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility --- Promotion --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Education: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Education --- Poverty & precarity --- Labor markets --- Aging --- Poverty --- Income --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Labor market --- Population aging --- Income economics

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Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.

Forecasting --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Neural Networks and Related Topics --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Machine learning --- Economic Forecasting --- Artificial intelligence --- Economic forecasting --- Technology --- United States

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This paper discusses the implications of climate change for fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic policies. Most pressing is the use of carbon taxes (or equivalent trading systems) to implement the emissions mitigation pledges submitted by 186 countries for the December 2015 Paris Agreement while providing revenue for lowering other taxes or debt. Carbon pricing in developing countries would effectively mobilize climate finance, and carbon price floor arrangements are a promising way to coordinate policies internationally. Targeted fiscal measures that are tailored to national circumstances and robust across climate scenarios are needed to counter private sector under-investment in climate adaptation. And increased disclosure of carbon footprints, stress testing of asset values, and greater proliferation of hedging instruments, will facilitate low-emission investments and climate risk diversification through financial markets.

Taxation --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Natural Disasters --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Environmental Economics: General --- Climate change --- Public finance & taxation --- Natural disasters --- Environmental economics --- Carbon tax --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Climate finance --- Environment --- Taxes --- Climatic changes --- Environmental impact charges --- Greenhouse gases --- China, People's Republic of