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External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.

Exports --- Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Thailand --- Foreign economic relations --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Tʻai-kuo --- Hsien-lo --- Muang-Thai --- Thaimaa --- Prates Thai --- Prades Thai --- Thaïlande --- Kingdom of Thailand --- Prathēt Thai --- Tailand --- Thailandia --- Thajsko --- Royal Thai Government --- Ratcha Anachak Thai --- Koninkryk van Thailand --- تايلاند --- Tāylānd --- Tailandia --- Reino de Tailandia --- Tayilande --- Royômo de Tayilande --- Tayland Krallığı --- Pratet Tai --- Thài-kok --- Тайланд --- Каралеўства Тайланд --- Karaleŭstva Taĭland --- Tailandya --- Tajland --- Kraljevina Tajland --- Кралство Тайланд --- Kralstvo Taĭland --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- International trade --- Siam --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Output gap --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Production --- Economic theory --- Prices --- Interest rates --- United States

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Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in relation to GDP, has steadily fallen in the last three decades, evoking fears that economic activity may be correspondingly negatively affected. At the same time, however, public consumption in the EU-12 countries has trended up. In this paper, we provide a macroeconomic assessment of the observed change in the composition of public spending in the euro area in a medium-scale two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. First, we identify the channels through which both temporary and permanent public investment shocks generate larger fiscal multipliers than exogenous increases in public consumption. Second, we quantify the negative impact of a change in fiscal stance, characterized by a permanent rise in public consumption and a permanent fall in public investment, keeping the overall level of public spending constant. The key message of the paper is that calls for reversing the observed trend in the composition of public spending are well justified.

Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Public finance & taxation --- Public investment spending --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Consumption --- Expenditure --- Private investment --- Public investments --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Economics --- Expenditures, Public --- Saving and investment --- United States --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models.

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This paper examines the issue of whether countries can improve their welfare by coordinating macroeconomic policies. The main purpose is to compute the gains from international monetary cooperation as the difference between the steady state consumption levels associated with the Nash and the cooperative outcomes of the game in which monetary authorities pursue active monetary policy. A numerical second-order approximation makes the solution of the model possible. Contrary to Obstfeld and Rogoff (2002), who claim that the gains from international cooperation in monetary policy are negligible, the paper finds that they could be very significant and reach as high as 2.2 percent of steady state consumption. This suggests that individual countries could experience significant welfare losses if they concentrate only on domestic stabilization policies.

Monetary policy --- International economic relations --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Econometric models. --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Labor Economics: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Consumption --- Sticky prices --- Securities markets --- Wages --- National accounts --- Prices --- Financial markets --- Economics --- Labor economics --- Capital market --- United States --- Income economics

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Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.

Business cycles -- Thailand -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Foreign exchange rates -- Thailand -- Econometric models. --- Interest rates -- Thailand -- Econometric models. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Business cycles --- Foreign exchange rates --- Interest rates --- Econometric models. --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Rates --- Interest --- Cycles --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Finance --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Financial statements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Real interest rates --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Finance, Public --- Financial services industry --- United States