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China has been moving to a more market oriented financial system, which has implications for the monetary policy environment. The paper investigates the stability of the money demand function (MDF) in light of progress in financial sector reforms that, for example, have resulted in significant financial innovation (so-called shadow banking) and more liberalized interest rates. The analysis of international experience suggests that rapid development of the financial system often leads to structural shifts in the MDF. For example, financial innovation and liberalization alter the sensitivity of money balances to income and the interest rate. For China, we find that the stable long-run relationship between money demand, output, and interest rates that existed between 2002 and 2008 disappears after 2008. This coincides with the period of rapid financial innovation, especially the growth in off-balance sheet and nonbank financial intermediation. The results suggest that usefulness of M2 as an intermediate monetary target has declined with financial innovation and reform. A result that underscores the importance of moving toward increased reliance on more price-based targets such as interest rates.
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This paper assesses the effects of selected structural reforms on labor productivity growth for 37 developing countries over 2006-14. It combines newly constructed reform indexes using the International Monetary Fund's Monitoring of Fund Arrangements data set and firm-level productivity from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms under consideration in this study-financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms-significantly improve productivity at the firm level. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizable effects on firms' productivity. The relationship between reforms and productivity is nonlinear and shaped by certain characteristics of firms, including financial access, a distortionary environment, and firms' size. The pace of reforms matters, since being a "strong reformer" is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all the macroeconomic reforms considered are bilaterally complementary in improving firms' productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks, including alternative methodologies and measures of productivity, and a counterfactual experiment based on unsuccessful reforms.
Access to Finance --- Business Environment --- Consumption --- Developing Countries --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Industrial Economics --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Marketing --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Development Law --- Private Sector Economics --- Productivity --- Structural Reforms --- Technology Industry --- Technology Innovation
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Structural Reforms and Firms' Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries.
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Economic assistance --- Fiscal policy --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy)
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