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Econophysics Approaches to Large-Scale Business Data and Financial Crisis : Proceedings of Tokyo Tech-Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference + APFA7
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 9784431538530 9784431538547 9784431546719 9784431538523 Year: 2010 Publisher: Tokyo Springer Japan

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In recent years, as part of the increasing “informationization” of industry and the economy, enterprises have been accumulating vast amounts of detailed data such as high-frequency transaction data in nancial markets and point-of-sale information onindividualitems in theretail sector. Similarly,vast amountsof data arenow ava- able on business networks based on inter rm transactions and shareholdings. In the past, these types of information were studied only by economists and management scholars. More recently, however, researchers from other elds, such as physics, mathematics, and information sciences, have become interested in this kind of data and, based on novel empirical approaches to searching for regularities and “laws” akin to those in the natural sciences, have produced intriguing results. This book is the proceedings of the international conference THICCAPFA7 that was titled “New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and E- nomic Data,” held in Tokyo, March 1–5, 2009. The letters THIC denote the Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology)–Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference. The conference series, titled APFA (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), focuses on the analysis of large-scale economic data. It has traditionally brought physicists and economists together to exchange viewpoints and experience (APFA1 in Dublin 1999, APFA2 in Liege ` 2000, APFA3 in London 2001, APFA4 in Warsaw 2003, APFA5 in Torino 2006, and APFA6 in Lisbon 2007). The aim of the conf- ence is to establish fundamental analytical techniques and data collection methods, taking into account the results from a variety of academic disciplines.


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Proceedings of the International Conference on Social Modeling and Simulation, plus Econophysics Colloquium 2014
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 9783319205915 3319205900 9783319205908 3319205919 Year: 2015 Publisher: Cham Springer Nature

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The proceedings of the international conference “SMSEC2014”, a joint conference of the first “Social Modeling and Simulations” and the 10th “Econophysics Colloquium”, held in Kobe in November 2014 with 174 participants, are gathered herein. Cutting edge scientific researches on various social phenomena are reviewed. New methods for analysis of big data such as financial markets, automobile traffics, epidemic spreading, world-trades and social media communications are provided to clarify complex interaction and distributions underlying in these social phenomena. Robustness and fragility of social systems are discussed based on agent models and complex network models. Techniques about high performance computers are introduced for simulation of complicated social phenomena. Readers will feel the researchers minds that deep and quantitative understanding will make it possible to realize comprehensive simulations of our whole society in the near future, which will contribute to wide fields of industry also to scientific policy decision.    .


Book
Econophysics Approaches to Large-Scale Business Data and Financial Crisis
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9784431538530 9784431538547 9784431546719 9784431538523 Year: 2010 Publisher: Tokyo Springer Japan

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Abstract

In recent years, as part of the increasing informationization  of industry and the economy, enterprises have been accumulating vast amounts of detailed data such as high-frequency transaction data in nancial markets and point-of-sale information onindividualitems in theretail sector. Similarly,vast amountsof data arenow ava- able on business networks based on inter rm transactions and shareholdings. In the past, these types of information were studied only by economists and management scholars. More recently, however, researchers from other elds, such as physics, mathematics, and information sciences, have become interested in this kind of data and, based on novel empirical approaches to searching for regularities and laws  akin to those in the natural sciences, have produced intriguing results. This book is the proceedings of the international conference THICCAPFA7 that was titled New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and E- nomic Data,  held in Tokyo, March 1-5, 2009. The letters THIC denote the Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology)-Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference. The conference series, titled APFA (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), focuses on the analysis of large-scale economic data. It has traditionally brought physicists and economists together to exchange viewpoints and experience (APFA1 in Dublin 1999, APFA2 in Liege ` 2000, APFA3 in London 2001, APFA4 in Warsaw 2003, APFA5 in Torino 2006, and APFA6 in Lisbon 2007). The aim of the conf- ence is to establish fundamental analytical techniques and data collection methods, taking into account the results from a variety of academic disciplines.


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Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2012 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Using the “firm” quotes obtained from the tick-by-tick EBS (electronic broking system that is a major trading platform for foreign exchanges) data, it is found that risk-free arbitrage opportunities—free lunch—do occur in the foreign exchange markets, but it typically last only a few seconds. “Free lunch” is in the form of (a) negative spreads in a currency pair and (b) triangular arbitrage relationship involving three currency pairs. The latter occur much more often than the former. Such arbitrage opportunities tend to occur when the markets are active and volatile. Over the 12-year, tick-data samples, the number of free lunch opportunities has dramatically declined and the probability of the opportunities disappearing within one second has steadily increased. The size of expected profits is higher than transaction costs; trades that simultaneously take place on both sides of ask and bid (or three currency trades in case of triangular arbitrage) occur more often when free lunch appeared one second earlier than otherwise, suggesting that free lunch opportunities are actively taken. The probability of its disappearance within one second was less than 50% in 1999, but increased to about 90% by 2009. Less frequent occurrence and quicker disappearance in recent years are attributable to changes in trading microstructure: an introduction and proliferation of the Primary Customer system (weaker banks can use stronger banks' credit lines) and of direct connection of traders' programmed computers to the EBS computer.


Book
Econophysics approaches to large-scale business data and financial crisis : proceedings of the Tokyo Tech-Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference + APFA7
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 4431546715 4431538526 1299337120 4431538534 Year: 2010 Publisher: New York : Springer,

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In recent years, as part of the increasing “informationization” of industry and the economy, enterprises have been accumulating vast amounts of detailed data such as high-frequency transaction data in nancial markets and point-of-sale information onindividualitems in theretail sector. Similarly,vast amountsof data arenow ava- able on business networks based on inter rm transactions and shareholdings. In the past, these types of information were studied only by economists and management scholars. More recently, however, researchers from other elds, such as physics, mathematics, and information sciences, have become interested in this kind of data and, based on novel empirical approaches to searching for regularities and “laws” akin to those in the natural sciences, have produced intriguing results. This book is the proceedings of the international conference THICCAPFA7 that was titled “New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and E- nomic Data,” held in Tokyo, March 1–5, 2009. The letters THIC denote the Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology)–Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference. The conference series, titled APFA (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), focuses on the analysis of large-scale economic data. It has traditionally brought physicists and economists together to exchange viewpoints and experience (APFA1 in Dublin 1999, APFA2 in Liege ` 2000, APFA3 in London 2001, APFA4 in Warsaw 2003, APFA5 in Torino 2006, and APFA6 in Lisbon 2007). The aim of the conf- ence is to establish fundamental analytical techniques and data collection methods, taking into account the results from a variety of academic disciplines.

Keywords

Business enterprises -- Finance -- Congresses. --- Business enterprises -- Finance. --- Business enterprises. --- Mathematical physics -- Congresses. --- Mathematical physics. --- Business enterprises --- Mathematical physics --- Business & Economics --- Physics --- Physical Sciences & Mathematics --- Economic Theory --- Atomic Physics --- Finance --- Econophysics --- Business mathematics --- Statistical methods --- Mathematical models --- Funding --- Funds --- Arithmetic, Commercial --- Business --- Business arithmetic --- Business math --- Commercial arithmetic --- Mathematics --- Physics. --- Data mining. --- Probabilities. --- Statistical physics. --- Dynamical systems. --- Statistics. --- Econometrics. --- Statistical Physics, Dynamical Systems and Complexity. --- Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. --- Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes. --- Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance. --- Economics --- Currency question --- Statistical physics --- Distribution (Probability theory. --- Complex Systems. --- Statistics for Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance. --- Statistical Physics and Dynamical Systems. --- Statistical analysis --- Statistical data --- Statistical science --- Econometrics --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Distribution functions --- Frequency distribution --- Characteristic functions --- Probabilities --- Mathematical statistics --- Algorithmic knowledge discovery --- Factual data analysis --- KDD (Information retrieval) --- Knowledge discovery in data --- Knowledge discovery in databases --- Mining, Data --- Database searching --- Statistics . --- Probability --- Statistical inference --- Combinations --- Chance --- Least squares --- Risk --- Dynamical systems --- Kinetics --- Mechanics, Analytic --- Force and energy --- Mechanics --- Statics


Book
Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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With the high-frequency data of firm quotes in the transaction platform of foreign exchanges, arbitrage profit opportunities--in the forms of a negative bid-ask spread of a currency pair and triangular transactions involving three currency pairs--can be detected to emerge and disappear in the matter of seconds. The frequency and duration of such arbitrage opportunities have declined over time, most likely due to the emergence of algorithmic trading. When a human trader detects such an arbitrage opportunity and places orders for multiple transactions--two in negative spreads and three in triangular arbitrage--there is no guarantee all of those orders are fulfilled in a fraction of one second. Thus, the arbitrageur has to consider execution risk, when he/she/it detects the emergence of such an opportunity. The novelty of this paper is to show that those arbitrage opportunities were exploitable and executable, before the mid-2000s, even considering the transactions costs and execution risk. After many algorithmic computers were allowed to be connected directly to the EBS transaction platform in the mid-2000s, the frequency of free lunch cases has declined and probabilities of successful executions of all legs for arbitrage declined. We calculate the change in the expected profit of an attempt to execute necessary transactions to reap benefits from arbitrage opportunity.

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Book
Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2012 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Using the "firm" quotes obtained from the tick-by-tick EBS (electronic broking system that is a major trading platform for foreign exchanges) data, it is found that risk-free arbitrage opportunities--free lunch--do occur in the foreign exchange markets, but it typically last only a few seconds. "Free lunch" is in the form of (a) negative spreads in a currency pair and (b) triangular arbitrage relationship involving three currency pairs. The latter occur much more often than the former. Such arbitrage opportunities tend to occur when the markets are active and volatile. Over the 12-year, tick-data samples, the number of free lunch opportunities has dramatically declined and the probability of the opportunities disappearing within one second has steadily increased. The size of expected profits is higher than transaction costs; trades that simultaneously take place on both sides of ask and bid (or three currency trades in case of triangular arbitrage) occur more often when free lunch appeared one second earlier than otherwise, suggesting that free lunch opportunities are actively taken. The probability of its disappearance within one second was less than 50% in 1999, but increased to about 90% by 2009. Less frequent occurrence and quicker disappearance in recent years are attributable to changes in trading microstructure: an introduction and proliferation of the Primary Customer system (weaker banks can use stronger banks' credit lines) and of direct connection of traders' programmed computers to the EBS computer.

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Book
Random Walk or A Run : Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2008 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Using tick-by-tick data of the dollar-yen and euro-dollar exchange rates recorded in the actual transaction platform, a "run" -- continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks -- does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it started i.e., conditional probability of deal prices tend to move in the same direction as the last several times in a row is higher than 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such tendency of a run. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using the tick by tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting the exchange rate movement. Findings here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy.

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