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Cette étude comporte deux volets : l'identification d'exemples concrets d'exportations de services par les pays en développement, et des études quantitatives sur les avantages de la libéralisation. Loin d'être exhaustive, elle est limitée à bien des égards, mais l'on peut néanmoins en dégager deux conclusions essentielles. Tout d'abord, comme l'illustre la première partie de l'étude, il apparaît clairement que le secteur des services présente pour les pays en développement un très grand intérêt du point de vue des exportations par-delà le mode 4 (mouvements temporaires de personnes physiques fournissant des services), dans la mesure où ces pays sont des acteurs mondiaux ou régionaux dans des secteurs comme les services aux entreprises (externalisation), les services portuaires et services de transport maritime, les services audiovisuels, les services de télécommunications, les services de construction et les services de santé. Deuxièmement, comme on le voit dans la seconde partie de l'étude, pour la plupart des pays dont beaucoup de pays en développement, les gains liés aux exportations résultant de la libéralisation du marché ne sont ni la seule ni la plus importante source de gains attendus. Les avantages de la libéralisation des services découlent, pour une bonne part, non de la recherche d'un meilleur accès aux marchés à l'étranger mais de l'accroissement de la compétitivité et de l'efficience du marché intérieur. Ensemble, les deux observations de cette étude mettent en évidence les avantages potentiels de la libéralisation du marché des services tant pour les pays développés que pour les pays en développement.

Trade

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The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade. VAR estimations on United States data suggest that domestic uncertainty is a strong predictor of movements in imports, but has little effect on exports. Guided by these results, the paper estimates a bilateral model with focus on the impact of importer uncertainty on foreign suppliers. It finds that there is a strong negative relationship between uncertainty and trade and that this relationship is non-linear. Uncertainty matters most when its levels are exceptionally high. The paper does not find evidence of learning from past turmoils, suggesting that prior experience with major uncertainty shocks does not reduce the effect on trade. In line with the expectations, the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on trade is higher for trade relationships more intensive in durable goods. Surprisingly, however, the effect of durability is non-linear. Supply chain considerations or the possibility that the relationships with the highest durability lead to important compositional effects may have a bearing on the results. The results are robust to excluding the post Lehman shock, suggesting that the trade response during the 2008-2009 crisis has been similar to past uncertainty events.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exporters --- International Economics & Trade --- International trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Poverty Reduction --- Uncertainty shocks

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This study has two components: identification of concrete examples of services exports by developing countries, and quantitative studies on the gains from services liberalisation. While the study is by no means comprehensive, and is subject to many limitations, two fundamental findings emerge. The first of these findings, documented in Part I of the study, is that there is clear evidence that developing countries have important service sector export interests beyond mode 4 (temporary movement of services supplying personnel), being global or regional players in sectors such as business services (out-sourcing), port and shipping services, audiovisual services, telecommunications, construction services and health services. The second of these findings, documented in Part II of the study, is that for most countries, including many developing countries, export-related gains from services liberalisation are neither the only nor the largest basis of expected gains. A large portion of benefits from services liberalisation derive, not from seeking better market access abroad, but from the increased competitiveness and efficiency of the domestic market. Together, the study’s two findings underscore the potential benefits of services liberalisation, both for developed and for developing countries.

Trade

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Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalisation of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of the value added flows. This fact has important implications for the estimation of the gravity equation. We present empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. We also provide a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explaining trade where international supply chains are important.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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As globalization progresses and investment is mobile, it is ever more important for policy makers to understand drivers of growth and exports at the micro-level: Which products are being produced and exported? Which firms populate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are firms affected by exogenous shocks and policy intervention? Through the use of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, this paper assesses the trade competitiveness of Pakistan using micro-data. The case of Pakistan is interesting since the country's recent trade policy has reverted to a protectionist path since the mid-2000s and trade performance is stagnating, as indicated by a decrease in its trade-to-gross domestic product ratio over the past decade and low levels of sophistication of exports. The main findings of the paper are the following. Like many other countries, Pakistan posts a high concentration of exports in the hands of a limited number of large exporters. The dominance of few exporters has increased over time and it seems associated with the changes in trade policy. Low rates of product innovation and experimentation and a low ability of the Pakistani export sector to enter into new higher growth sectors are other features emerging from the data. All in all, the mediocre performance seems to be associated with internal problems with trade-related incentives, business environment, and governance, in addition to the well-known external constraints.

Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Exports growth --- Extensive and Intensive margins --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Poverty Reduction --- Trade competitiveness --- Trade Policy