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School dropout is a growing concern in Central America, and in Latin America as a whole, because of its consequences for economic productivity, the inclusiveness of growth, social cohesion, and increasing youth risks. This paper utilizes more than two decades of household survey data to construct a systematic overview of school dropout at the primary and secondary levels in Central America, including recent trends, causes and consequences, and evidence on what works to reduce dropout. Within each country, poverty, rurality, and indigenous group membership are the strongest correlates of dropout, reflecting several underlying factors that affect the marginal benefits and costs of staying in school. Global and regional evidence increasingly points to common policy priorities for reducing dropout across Central America, including addressing remaining gaps in access at the pre-primary and secondary levels, improving the quality of education at all levels, and strengthening the coverage, targeting, and coherence of existing programs aimed at improving education outcomes. However, additional rigorous evaluations, including cost data, are needed to identify the most effective specific approaches in each country.

Dropout --- Education --- Education for All --- Educational Attainment --- Effective Schools & Teachers --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Population Policies --- Primary Education --- Secondary Education --- Tertiary Education --- Costa Rica --- El Salvador --- Guatemala --- Honduras --- Nicaragua --- Panama

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This paper examines the phenomena of high rates of youth that are out of school and out of work in Latin America. The analysis pursues a dynamic approach by constructing a pseudo-panel from 234 household surveys for 18 countries in the region that allow tracing the life cycle trajectories of different cohorts over time. The trajectories are associated with a series of variables characterizing the household, community, and macro environment in which schooling and labor market participation decisions take place. The most important result obtained is that the persistently high rates of being out of school and out of work among males are strongly associated with greater labor force participation by women, which can be generating a "crowding out" effect against men, given slow job creation rates across the region. The analysis also explores the possibility of scarring effects, and finds that higher shares of out of school and out of work youth at ages 15020 years are associated with lower wages for the same cohorts later in life, at ages 35-40 years, for males and females. As for employment prospects, the analysis finds scarring effects only for females, with greater out of school and out of work youth shares being related to lower proportions of women in the labor market later in the life cycle.

Adolescent health --- Cohorts communities & human settlements --- Health, nutrition and population --- Housing & human habitats --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor policies --- Schooling --- Social protections and labor --- Youth & governance

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This study examines trends in school dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin America over the past two decades, and attempts to identify factors influencing these rates. The methodology contributes to the existing literature by employing repeated cross sections of data to track the life cycle path of representative groups of individuals belonging to a birth cohort, by constructing and analyzing a synthetic data base of household survey data from 18 countries. A key finding is that while upper secondary enrollment rates increased in the region, the proportion of upper secondary age youth dropping out of school has remained persistently high, despite relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, the study traces the moment in the life cycle at which the majority of dropout takes place to reveal differences between countries. Finally, to explain the trends in upper secondary dropout rates, the study examines the impact of three groups of factors: (i) shifts in the cohort size and socioeconomic composition of the population eligible for entering upper secondary education; (b) the macroeconomic environment and labor market opportunities; and (c) the returns to schooling. A series of regressions shows that an important factor that may be driving higher dropout levels has been the higher numbers of students from poor socioeconomic backgrounds reaching the upper secondary level. In addition, high returns to education have been a pull factor into the schooling system, while, especially in countries where the majority of youth dropout early (prior to upper secondary education), the data confirm an apparent substitution effect due to the opportunity cost of forgoing employment opportunities. Overall, the findings confirm the importance of policy makers' focus on upper secondary education across Latin America and suggest implications for focusing the policy agenda.

Dropout --- Dropout Rates --- Education --- Education for All --- Education Policy --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Household Surveys --- Income Effect --- Population Policies --- Primary Education --- Public Policy --- Returns to Education --- Secondary Education --- Substitution Effect

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This study examines the causes and effects of low enrollment and high dropout rates at the upper secondary level in Mexico, where upper secondary completion rates are well below those of other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and the regional average. Through a disaggregated analysis of coverage, absorption, and dropout data in secondary education at the state level, the study categorizes states according to the stage in the educational cycle at which dropout primarily occurs. The study further examines the academic, social, and economic consequences of dropout through an analysis of employment and youth survey data. The analysis of factors associated with dropout uses self-reported factors as well as estimated probit models that use household data from national surveys and the national standardized test. The central conclusion reached is that in addition to the patterns of dropout found, multiple elements intersect with the patterns to form a complex panorama. Key findings include: i) personal, family, and household economic factors and the prevalence of social risks have a closer association with dropout earlier in the education cycle; ii) the association between dropout and the quality of education has greater intensity in states where dropout occurs primarily during upper secondary education and in those with the lowest upper secondary dropout rates; and iii) as the returns to education grow, dropout is lower; in the case of returns to higher education, the association with dropout is stronger for states that have the highest dropout during upper secondary education. This complexity merits differentiated responses, which are explored through a brief look at relevant international approaches.

Access & Equity in Basic Education --- Dropout Rates --- Education --- Education For All --- Education Policy --- Employment Surveys --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Population Policies --- Primary Education --- Public Policy --- Returns To Education --- Secondary Education --- Tertiary Education --- Youth Surveys