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In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic pre-eminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China's to determine? Subramanian's analysis is based on a new index of economic dominance grounded in a historical perspective. His examination makes use of real-world examples, comparing China's rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. His attempt to quantify and project economic and currency dominance leads him to the conclusion that China's dominance is not only more imminent, but also broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude, than is currently imagined. He explores the profound effect this might have on the United States, as well as on the global financial and trade system. Subramanian concludes with a series of policy proposals for other nations to reconcile China's rise with continued openness in the global economic order, and to insure against China becoming a malign hegemon.

POLITICAL SCIENCE --- General --- Economic development --- Economic forecasting --- International economic relations --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- E-books --- S10/0251 --- S10/0685 --- China: Economics, industry and commerce--General works and economic history: since 1989 --- China: Economics, industry and commerce--US-China economic relations --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- China --- Economic conditions --- International economic relations.

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Since the early 1990s, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made significant progress in opening their economies to external competition through trade and currency liberalization. This paper analyzes trade and policy developments for 22 countries in eastern and southern Africa, looks at regional and multilateral integration issues, and reflects on the main challenges these countries face in the new decade. It addresses the main trade policy issues for these countries and suggests possible actions they and their trading partners could follow.

Africa, Eastern --- Africa, Southern --- Commerce. --- Foreign economic relations. --- Southern Africa --- Eastern Africa --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Tariffs --- Trade liberalization --- Exports --- Taxes on trade --- Trade policy --- Taxes --- International trade --- Commercial policy --- Tariff --- Imports --- South Africa

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Les Perspectives de l'economie mondiale (PEM) presentent des analyses de l'evolution economique mondiale a court et moyen termes, preparees par les principaux economistes du FMI. Elles constituent une ressource respectee, centrale et fiable d'informations fouillees et equilibrees, permettant aux decideurs et aux dirigeants du monde entier de prendre le recul necessaire. Publiees deux fois par an, les Perspectives de l'economie mondiale presentent sous une forme claire et pratique les perspectives en matiere de croissance, d'inflation, de commerce international et d'emploi, et s'interessent egalement a d'autres domaines economiques. Chaque numero des PEM se penche sur les problemes qui touchent les pays avances, emergents et en developpement. Les banques centrales, les economistes, les institutions financieres, les chefs d'entreprises, les gouvernements, les groupes de reflexion et les chercheurs attendent avec impatience cette etude sans pareille de la situation actuelle et de ce qui se prepare.

Commercial policy.

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Foreign trade policy --- World Trade Organization --- Egypt

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This paper explores the causes of India's productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. Trade liberalization, expansionary demand, a favorable external environment, and improved agricultural performance did not play a role. We find evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was probusiness rather than promarket in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its income-possibility frontier. Registered manufacturing, which had been built up in previous decades, played an important role in determining which states took advantage of the changed environment.

Economic history. --- Economic conditions --- History, Economic --- Economics --- India --- India. --- Bharat --- Bhārata --- Government of India --- Ḣindiston Respublikasi --- Inde --- Indië --- Indien --- Indii︠a︡ --- Indland --- Indo --- Republic of India --- Sāthāranarat ʻIndīa --- Yin-tu --- インド --- هند --- Индия --- Econometric models. --- Public Finance --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Macroeconomics --- Manufacturing industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Productivity --- Manufacturing --- Total factor productivity --- Public investment spending --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Industrial productivity --- Public investments --- Public-private sector cooperation