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This paper investigates the short-run consumption expenditure dynamics and the interaction of public and private arrangements of ultra-poor and labor-constrained households in Malawi using an original dataset from the Mchinjii social cash transfer pilot project (one of the first experiments of social protection policies based on unconditional cash transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa). The authors exploit the unique source of exogenous variation provided by the randomized component of the program in order to isolate the effect of cash transfers on consumption expenditures as well as the net crowding out effect of cash transfers on private arrangements. They find a statistically significant reduction effect on the level of consumption expenditures for those households receiving cash transfers, thus leading to the rejection of the perfect risk sharing hypothesis. Moreover, by looking at the effects of cash transfers on private arrangements in a context characterized by imperfect enforceability of contracts and by a social fabric heavily compromised by high HIV/AIDS rates, the analysis confirms the presence of crowding out effects on private arrangements when looking at gifts and (to a lesser extent) remittances, while informal loans seem to be completely independent from the cash transfer's reception. From a policy perspective, the paper offers a contribution to the evaluation of the very recent wave of social protection policies based on (unconditional) cash transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that there might be an important role for public interventions aimed at helping households to pool risk more effectively.
Cash transfers --- Consumption --- Debt Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- HIV-AIDS --- Labor Policies --- Private Sector Development --- Risk sharing --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety Nets and Transfers --- Services & Transfers to Poor --- Africa --- Malawi
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This paper investigates the short-run consumption expenditure dynamics and the interaction of public and private arrangements of ultra-poor and labor-constrained households in Malawi using an original dataset from the Mchinjii social cash transfer pilot project (one of the first experiments of social protection policies based on unconditional cash transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa). The authors exploit the unique source of exogenous variation provided by the randomized component of the program in order to isolate the effect of cash transfers on consumption expenditures as well as the net crowding out effect of cash transfers on private arrangements. They find a statistically significant reduction effect on the level of consumption expenditures for those households receiving cash transfers, thus leading to the rejection of the perfect risk sharing hypothesis. Moreover, by looking at the effects of cash transfers on private arrangements in a context characterized by imperfect enforceability of contracts and by a social fabric heavily compromised by high HIV/AIDS rates, the analysis confirms the presence of crowding out effects on private arrangements when looking at gifts and (to a lesser extent) remittances, while informal loans seem to be completely independent from the cash transfer's reception. From a policy perspective, the paper offers a contribution to the evaluation of the very recent wave of social protection policies based on (unconditional) cash transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that there might be an important role for public interventions aimed at helping households to pool risk more effectively.
Cash transfers --- Consumption --- Debt Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- HIV-AIDS --- Labor Policies --- Private Sector Development --- Risk sharing --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety Nets and Transfers --- Services & Transfers to Poor --- Africa --- Malawi
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Financial regulation affects government revenue whenever it imposes both the mandatory quantity and price of government bonds. This paper studies a banking regulation adopted by the National Bank of Ethiopia in April 2011, which forces all private banks to purchase a fixed negative-yield government bond in proportion to private sector lending. Having access to monthly bank balance sheets, a survey of branch costs and public finances documentation, the effect of the policy on government revenue can be tracked. This is compared to three plausible revenue-generating alternatives: raising funds at competitive rates on international markets; distorting the private lending of the state-owned bank; and raising new deposits through additional branches of the state-owned bank. Three main results emerge: the government revenue gain is moderate (1.5-2.6 percent of the tax revenue); banks comply with the policy and amass more safe assets; banks' profit growth slows without turning negative (from 10 percent to 2 percent).
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In absence of deposit insurance, underdeveloped financial systems can exhibit a coordination failure between banks, unable to commit on safe asset holding, and depositors, anticipating low deposit repayment in bad states. This paper shows conditions under which a government can solve this failure by imposing safe asset purchases, which boosts deposits by increasing depositor repayment in bad states. In so doing, financial regulation stimulates bank profits if subsequent deposit growth exceeds the intermediation margin decline. As a result, it also promotes loans and branch installation with deposits. Two empirical tests are presented: 1) a regulation change by the National Bank of Ethiopia in 2011; 2) the introduction of bank taxes in Antebellum USA (1800-1861). Analyzing bank balance sheets and long-term branch installation, the regulation effects are isolated exploiting heterogeneity in bank size and policies introduction respectively, and find increases in branches, deposits, loans, and safe assets, with no decline in overall profits.
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We present a novel and comprehensive dataset of bilateral gross and net external positions in various financial instruments for the main advanced and emerging economies and regions, designed to improve our understanding of cross-border financial linkages. The data show no strong correspondence between country or region pairs with the largest gross versus net external positions, and the importance of international financial centers, including offshore centers, in intermediating financial flows. We also highlight some important data gaps in completing a network of cross-border holdings, related to the limited available information on the size and geographical pattern of external claims and liabilities of offshore centers, oil exporters, and other mostly emerging markets.
International economic integration. --- Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Common markets --- Economic integration, International --- Economic union --- Integration, International economic --- Markets, Common --- Union, Economic --- International economic relations --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Finance --- Banking --- International economics --- Financial instruments --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- External position --- Foreign banks --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- International finance --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- United States
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In many aid projects, monitoring and evaluation is a static exercise driven by donor reporting requirements. After project closure, there are seldom sustainable benefits of the monitoring and evaluation system. This paper examines how monitoring and evaluation can be transformed into a dynamic tool for effective project management, with benefits carrying over beyond the typical project lifecycle. The paper assesses an innovative, digital management information system developed under the Women Entrepreneurship Development Project, a Government of Ethiopia initiative financed by a World Bank International Development Association loan and grant funding from Global Affairs Canada. The paper examines the context of the development of the management information system, its effectiveness, and its potential for sustainability. Ethiopia is among the poorest countries in the world, and government administration units involved in administering projects often face funding and resource shortfalls. The paper demonstrates how effective and sustainable monitoring and evaluation systems can be developed even in challenging contexts such as these, by focusing on simple technical solutions that can be maintained and refined locally, ensuring low development and maintenance costs compatible with government monitoring and evaluation budgets, and linking project-level monitoring and evaluation to broader government operations.
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This case study tells the story of the evolution of psychometric credit scoring as an innovative solution in a World Bank operation, from its humble beginnings as a small pilot in Ethiopia, to the current movement to replicate its use for similar challenges in countries across the continent in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and beyond. Fintech is commonly defined as an industry composed of companies that use technology to make financial systems more efficient. The story is one of both achievements and setbacks, just as the future of fintech holds both promise and limitations. It is shared with a view to better understand how psychometrics and fintech more broadly can be utilized to solve critical development challenges, and help get finance to those who need it most around the world.
Access to Finance --- Collateral --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Gender --- Gender and Economics --- Microenterprises --- Private Sector Development --- Psychology --- Rural Development --- Science and Technology Development --- Social Development --- Technology Innovation
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In October 2012, the Government of Ethiopia launched the Women Entrepreneurship Development Project (WEDP), with the aim of increasing the earnings and employment of growth-oriented micro and small enterprises (MSEs) owned or partly-owned by women entrepreneurs in Ethiopia. In doing so, it created the first ever women-entrepreneur focused line of credit in Africa, and one of few such operations in the world. In addition to the USD 45.9 million in financing, WEDP also offered a variety of innovative training opportunities, designed to not only enhance the business skills of its clients, but their entrepreneurial mindset and practices as well.
Access to Finance --- Business Development Services --- Enterprise Development and Reform --- Gender --- Gender and Economics --- Microenterprises --- Private Sector Development
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Gender disparities in small and medium-size enterprise lending exist around the world and impede the growth of millions of women-led firms. This paper examines a potential driver of these disparities: gender-biased loan officers. Officer bias is measured through a novel loan application experiment conducted with 77 loan officers in Turkish banks. The analysis finds that 35 percent of the loan officers are biased against female applicants, with women receiving loan amounts USD14,000 lower on average compared with men. Experience in the banking sector can attenuate this bias, with each year of experience reducing gender biased loan allocations by 6 percent. The results suggest that loan officers may use gender bias as a heuristic device given limited information and risk aversion. Helping newly recruited and lesser experienced loan officers to better discern loan application quality may thus improve financing of business loans to women and reduce gender gaps in entrepreneurship.
Access to Finance --- Africa Gender Policy --- Banking --- Credit --- Entrepreneurship --- Female Entrepreneurs --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Gender --- Gender and Development --- Gender and Economic Policy --- Gender Bias --- Gender Gap --- Gender Innovation Lab --- Inequality --- Law and Development --- Law and Gender --- Small and Medium Enterprises --- SME Finance
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