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We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of global real interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes in the natural real interest rate—i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potential and constant inflation. An important implication of our analysis is that increased competition in goods and labor market since the 1970s can help explain both the large increase in real interest rates up to the mid-1980s and—as globalization forces mature and may even go into reverse, leading to incrementally rising market power—its subsequent and protracted decline accompanied by lower inflation. The analysis has important implications for monetary policy and the optimal pace of normalization.
Globalization. --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Banks and Banking --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Globalization --- Market Structure and Pricing: Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Globalization: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Real interest rates --- Labor markets --- Long term interest rates --- Productivity --- Financial services --- Production --- Interest rates --- Labor market --- Industrial productivity --- United States --- Income economics
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Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate.
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