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We examine determinants of, and interactions between, capital inflows, financial development, and domestic investment in developing countries during 2001-07, a period of surging global liquidity and low interest rates. Reductions in the global price of risk and in domestic borrowing costs were the main contributors to the increase over time in net capital inflows and domestic credit. However, the large cross-country differences in domestic and international finance are best explained by fundamentals such as institutional quality, access to international export markets, and an appropriate macroeconomic policy. Both private capital inflows and domestic credit exert a positive effect on investment; they also mediate most of the investment impact of the global price of risk and domestic borrowing costs. Surprisingly, neither greater domestic credit nor greater institutional quality increase the extent to which capital inflows translate into domestic investment.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Consumption --- Real exchange rates --- Import prices --- Prices --- National accounts --- Economics --- Imports --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Trade: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Capital inflows --- Domestic credit --- Exports --- Return on investment --- Export performance --- Balance of payments --- Money --- International trade --- Capital movements --- Credit --- Saving and investment --- Norway --- United States
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Limited diversification is an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for increases in productivity and quality may result in less broad-based and sustainable growth. Moreover, lack of diversification may increase exposure to adverse external shocks and macroeconomic instability. The SDN will have three objectives. First, to review and extend the evidence, from the existing literature and ongoing IMF work, that points to diversification as a crucial aspect of the development process. A major focus will be on cross-country and cross-regional differences in the pace of diversification. Second, to draw lessons from the experiences of those countries that have successfully diversified their economies. Third, to analyze the relationship between diversification, growth, and volatility.
Diversification in industry --- Industrial diversification --- Product diversification --- Input-output analysis --- Barriers to entry (Industrial organization) --- Multiproduct firms --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Trade: General --- Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change --- Industrial Price Indices --- Labor Economics: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- International economics --- Economic growth --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Exports --- Structural transformation --- Labor --- Manufacturing --- Personal income --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- Economic development --- Labor economics --- Income --- Malaysia --- Income economics
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Recorded workers 'remittances to developing countries have grown rapidly, to more than USD 100 billion in 2004, bringing increasing attention to these flows as a potential tool for development. But even these statistics are likely to significantly understate true remittances, as a large share is believed to flow through informal channels. Estimates of the importance of the informal sector vary widely, ranging from 35 percent to 250 percent of total remittances. The primary motivation of the authors is to develop the first empirical methodology to estimate informal flows. They use insights from the literature on shadow economies and empirically estimate informal remittances for more than 100 countries using historical data on the balance of payments (BOP), migration, transaction costs, and country characteristics. Their results imply that informal remittances amount to about 35-75 percent of official remittances to developing countries. There is significant regional variation: informal remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe and Central Asia are relatively high, while those to East Asia and the Pacific are relatively low. These estimates are supplemented with detailed household survey data on remittance receipts in a number of countries. The results also shed light on the determinants of recorded remittances and the associated fees in the formal sector. The authors find that the stock of migrants in OECD countries is the primary determinant of remittances. In addition, money transfer fees and the presence of dual exchange rates reduce the share of remittances reported in national accounts. In turn, transaction costs are systematically related to concentration in the banking sector, lack of financial depth, and exchange rate volatility. There is also evidence that remittances are misrecorded in the BOP as " errors and omissions."
Balance Of Payments --- Cash Transfers --- Courier Companies --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Determinants Of Remittances --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange Rate --- Exchange Rates --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Informal Channels --- Informal Flows --- Informal Remittances --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migrants --- Money Transfer --- Money Transfer Fees --- Money Transfer Operators --- Money Transfer Services --- Population Policies --- Private Sector Development --- Remittance --- Remittance Flows --- Remittance Receipts --- Remittance Transfer --- Remittances --- Transfer Money
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Recorded workers 'remittances to developing countries have grown rapidly, to more than USD 100 billion in 2004, bringing increasing attention to these flows as a potential tool for development. But even these statistics are likely to significantly understate true remittances, as a large share is believed to flow through informal channels. Estimates of the importance of the informal sector vary widely, ranging from 35 percent to 250 percent of total remittances. The primary motivation of the authors is to develop the first empirical methodology to estimate informal flows. They use insights from the literature on shadow economies and empirically estimate informal remittances for more than 100 countries using historical data on the balance of payments (BOP), migration, transaction costs, and country characteristics. Their results imply that informal remittances amount to about 35-75 percent of official remittances to developing countries. There is significant regional variation: informal remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe and Central Asia are relatively high, while those to East Asia and the Pacific are relatively low. These estimates are supplemented with detailed household survey data on remittance receipts in a number of countries. The results also shed light on the determinants of recorded remittances and the associated fees in the formal sector. The authors find that the stock of migrants in OECD countries is the primary determinant of remittances. In addition, money transfer fees and the presence of dual exchange rates reduce the share of remittances reported in national accounts. In turn, transaction costs are systematically related to concentration in the banking sector, lack of financial depth, and exchange rate volatility. There is also evidence that remittances are misrecorded in the BOP as " errors and omissions."
Balance Of Payments --- Cash Transfers --- Courier Companies --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Determinants Of Remittances --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange Rate --- Exchange Rates --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Informal Channels --- Informal Flows --- Informal Remittances --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migrants --- Money Transfer --- Money Transfer Fees --- Money Transfer Operators --- Money Transfer Services --- Population Policies --- Private Sector Development --- Remittance --- Remittance Flows --- Remittance Receipts --- Remittance Transfer --- Remittances --- Transfer Money
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We explore the contribution of product-quality upgrading to the export performance of six fast-growing Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. We focus on measuring the impact of quality upgrading on the changes in these countries’ sectoral export shares during 1970–2010. We build a multisector Ricardian trade model which allows for changes in product quality, and calibrate it to generate predictions about export volumes. Unlike previous literature, our approach allows estimation without employing domestic production data. Our results point to quality upgrading being a key driver of export shares.
Exports--Asia. --- Quality of products--Asia. --- Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Trade: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Agriculture: General --- Energy: General --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Manufacturing industries --- Exports --- Export performance --- Manufacturing --- Agricultural commodities --- Oil --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- Farm produce --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Korea, Republic of --- Industrialization.
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The experience of developing countries over 1990-2010 indicates that commodity prices have a significant impact on fiscal outcomes. Both revenue and expenditure rise in response to commodity (import or export) price increases; the response of the fiscal deficit is ambiguous. A floating exchange rate regime only partially offsets the impact; foreign-exchange reserves do not dampen the effects. Hence, there is a strong case for fiscal hedging against commodity price shocks. Hedging instruments based on a limited set of benchmark world prices for a narrow set of commodities may suffice to realize most of the potential benefits.
Prices --- Fiscal policy --- Hedging (Finance) --- Options (Finance) --- Speculation --- Financial futures --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Investments: Commodities --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Commodities --- Export prices --- Exports
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This paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in both source and recipient economies. We exploit a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to 107 developing countries over the period 2005-2011. We find that remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries, and increase in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters or large declines in the terms of trade. Remittances are positively correlated with economic conditions in the source province. Nevertheless, in the presence of similar negative shocks to both source and recipient economies, remittances remain counter-cyclical with respect to the recipient country.
Poverty --- Public health --- Natural disasters --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters --- Emigration and Immigration --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Foreign Aid --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Remittances --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- International Migration --- International economics --- Finance --- Economic growth --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Financial sector development --- Business cycles --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Balance of payments --- Migration --- Population and demographics --- Financial markets --- Financial crises --- International finance --- Financial services industry --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Emigration and immigration --- Italy
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This paper develops new, far more extensive estimates of export quality, covering 178 countries and hundreds of products over 1962–2010. Quality upgrading is particularly rapid during the early stages of development, with quality convergence largely completed as a country reaches upper middle-income status. There is significant cross-country heterogeneity in quality growth rates. Within any given product line, quality converges both conditionally and unconditionally to the world frontier; increases in institutional quality and human capital are associated with faster quality upgrading. In turn, faster growth in quality is associated with more rapid output growth. The evidence suggests that quality upgrading is best encouraged through a broadly conducive domestic environment, rather than sector-specific policies. Diversification is important to create new upgrading opportunities.
Exports --- Export controls --- Export licenses --- Export restrictions --- Licenses, Export --- Foreign trade regulation --- Law and legislation --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Information and Product Quality --- Standardization and Compatibility --- Trade: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Agriculture: General --- International economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Agricultural economics --- Manufacturing --- Personal income --- Human capital --- Agricultural sector --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- Income --- Agricultural industries --- Tanzania, United Republic of --- Income economics
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Economic development critically involves diversification and structural transformation-that is, the continued, dynamic reallocation of resources from less productive to more productive sectors and activities. This paper documents that, over an extended period, developing Asia has on average been particularly successful in diversifying its exports, particularly in comparison with Sub-Saharan Africa. Much of the progress has occurred through diversification along the 'extensive margin', that is, through entry into completely new products. In addition, developing Asia has on average benefited significantly from quality upgrading, helping it capitalize on already existing comparative advantages. Yet, agricultural and natural resources tend to have lower potential for quality upgrading than manufactures. Therefore, for lower-income "frontier" countries, diversification into products with longer "quality ladders" may be a necessary first step before large gains from quality improvement can be reaped.
Agribusiness & markets --- Asian countries --- Economic theory & research --- Emerging markets --- Environment --- Environmental economics & policies --- Export diversifcation and quality --- Growth --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Poverty reduction --- Private sector development --- Pro-poor growth --- Rural development --- Structual transformation --- Volatility
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