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This paper adds international migration and remittances into the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). FSGM is a global general equilibrium model with endogenous primary commodity markets. A method to estimate the structural dynamics of major remitter regions is proposed. The dynamics of remittances and migration in FSGM are calibrated to be consistent with the main stylized facts of the empirical estimates. Structural disturbances pertinent to current global remittance flows are examined. These disturbances include disruptions to oil supply, output variation in Europe and the United States, labor nationalization policies in Saudi Arabia, and a global reduction in the cost to remit. The multilateral framework illustrates how remittance inflows need not originate from the region with the underlying economic disturbance but can arise from third party remitter regions affected by global commodity markets. The results also illustrate that the correlation of remittance inflows and the real GDP of labor-exporting economies can be either positively or negatively correlated. The evidence suggests that the behavioral incentive to migrate and remit cannot be deduced from correlations of real GDP and remittance inflows.
Capital movements. --- Economic assistance. --- Economic development. --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- International Migration --- Remittances --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Energy: General --- Labor Economics: General --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Foreign labor --- Oil --- Commodities --- Labor market --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Labor economics --- Saudi Arabia
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This paper uses the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) to assess the impact of fiscal consolidation on the Czech economy. Its contribution is threefold. First, it provides estimates of dynamic fiscal multipliers for a variety of fiscal instruments (tax and expenditure), consolidation durations, assumptions about credibility, and monetary policy responses. Second, the paper evaluates the impact on the economy of tightening measures envisaged in the 2011 budget. Third, the paper considers alternative packages for consolidation beyond 2011 to achieve the government’s balanced budget target by 2016 and identifies which forms of adjustment are more "growth-friendly".
Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Fiscal Policy --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Government consumption --- Fiscal consolidation --- Labor taxes --- Consumption taxes --- Public debt --- Consumption --- Economics --- Income tax --- Spendings tax --- Debts, Public --- Czech Republic
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Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.
Petroleum industry and trade --- Fiscal policy. --- Energy industries --- Oil industries --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Economic aspects. --- Government policy --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- National Deficit Surplus --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Government Policy --- Energy: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Investment & securities --- Oil --- Oil prices --- Fiscal rules --- Fiscal policy --- Commodities --- Chile
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The IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is used to examine the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative impact of fiscal consolidation required to put public debt back on a sustainable path. The results suggest that structural reforms in core countries could quite reasonably be expected to offset the near term negative impact on activity arising from the required fiscal consolidation that uses a plausible mix of instruments to achieve the permanent improvement in the deficit. However, for the periphery, where the required consolidation is roughly twice as large as that required in the core, the results suggest that it would take several years before structural reforms could return the level of output back to its pre-consolidation path.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Economic stabilization --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Economic policy --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Labor Economics Policies --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Labor supply --- Structural reforms --- Labor market reforms --- Public debt --- Expenditure --- Macrostructural analysis --- Labor market --- Manpower policy --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- United States
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