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The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) helps ensure U.S. workers operate in safe and healthful working conditions by funding related efforts by external researchers; developing and testing engineering controls, personal protective equipment, and other technologies; and providing educational information, guidance, and training, as well as other services. NIOSH must prioritize its investments in workplace safety and health to make the best use of available funding and must also demonstrate the value of that funding. However, there are a number of challenges in understanding the benefits associated with this or any agency's research activities. In an earlier study, RAND researchers developed an approach for estimating these benefits and demonstrated the approach using three case studies. NIOSH then asked RAND to further build upon that work by developing a process for selecting case studies for evaluation, applying that selection process to a list of ten potential case studies, and selecting three case studies from this list for detailed analysis. In this report, the authors define and document a process for selecting case studies of the economic benefits of research and services at NIOSH and evaluate benefits associated with three selected cases. Together, this body of research helps build a foundation for evaluating the broader societal benefits provided by NIOSH, both by providing quantitative estimates of the benefits associated with specific NIOSH activities and by providing NIOSH with methods and examples for consistently evaluating the societal impact of its own work.
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It can be useful to rethink a difficult problem by applying a new lens and seeing whether that lens provides new strategies and either reinforces or calls into question existing ones. A change of leadership in Washington provides an opportunity to once again reevaluate the relationship between the United States and North Korea, and to figure out ways to productively move forward. In this report, the authors draw on intuition from game theory to better understand the situation in North Korea. These insights and recommendations are based on game theoretic analysis of how to deal with Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, and the situation on the Korean peninsula; specifically, how to carry out negotiations on denuclearization. The authors argue that U.S. policy should make better use of concrete actions that are designed to elucidate Kim's ultimate goals and motivations. Much more emphasis at the beginning of negotiations should be placed on designing effective monitoring and verification mechanisms, figuring out a way to ensure credible commitment on both sides, and determining the long-term effects of any action on future negotiations and other countries. Strong multilateral cooperation, especially with China, is the best way to deal with North Korea; the incentives of North Korean elites have not been discussed enough in the existing literature. Deadlines to spur progress—and consequences if those deadlines are not met—are vitally important because, with each passing year, North Korea's technological prowess and stockpile of nuclear weapons are likely increasing.
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Given an all-volunteer force, compensation and benefits are critical for attracting and retaining the quantity and quality of military personnel necessary for the United States to achieve its military goals. The military must set pay high enough to draw quality recruits away from other jobs that they could obtain, while also appropriately managing public funds. Analyzing data from 1999, the Ninth Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation (QRMC) recommended in 2002 that regular military compensation (RMC) — which is the sum of basic pay, basic allowance for housing, basic allowance for subsistence, and the federal tax advantage resulting from allowances not being taxed — be at around the 70th percentile of comparably educated civilian wages. The authors' analysis indicates that RMC has consistently remained above that benchmark and has thus continued to support readiness. The authors also found that as the RMC/wage ratio increased over time, recruit quality increased in the Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force, but not in the Army. In addition, they saw large differences in how RMC compares with civilian pay across geographies for individuals of different education levels: Whereas officers and those with more education in general are likely to find military pay higher relative to civilian pay if they live in less-urban areas, enlisted military with a high school degree are likely to find military pay as attractive in urban as in nonurban areas. On average, RMC in 2017 was at the 85th percentile for active-component enlisted personnel and at the 77th percentile for active-component officers.
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It is difficult to guess when the situation in North Korea will become conducive to foreign investment and development. When it does, however, the country will need to find a path for economic development. The authors describe such a blueprint using foreign investment as an organizational framework, basing their roadmap of recommended reforms on an assessment of North Korea's current socioeconomic conditions; identification of priority sectors based on need and where the country might have a comparative advantage; lessons from the development trajectories of Vietnam, China, South Korea, Poland, Russia, and India; and existing investment frameworks adapted to North Korea.
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In 2016, Congress created the Cyber Excepted Service (CES) and granted the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) flexibilities when setting compensation to support the recruitment and retention of personnel who are critical to the DoD cyber warfare mission. To justify a market-based permanent pay adjustment, there must be evidence that existing compensation is insufficient to attract and retain a required number of qualified employees. A persistent labor shortage signifies that compensation is insufficient and can be identified by high employee turnover or difficulty in filling posted vacancies. In this report, the authors analyze the labor demand and supply for seven DoD cyber work roles that were collectively identified as high priority by the service components and the Office of the DoD Chief Information Officer (CIO). The authors provide a framework for adjusting pay according to economic theory, identify private-sector occupational counterparts for the seven work roles, discuss findings from DoD employment and compensation questionnaires completed by CES organizations, compare characteristics and life-cycle pay between DoD cyber civilians and their private-sector counterparts, and make recommendations for the DoD CIO when setting compensation policy.
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Every four years, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) commissions a review of the military compensation system. Since the 9th such commission reporting in 2002, the benchmark for setting the level of military pay has been at about the 70th percentile of earnings for similar civilians given the unusual demands and arduous nature of military service. The 70th percentile benchmark was based on analysis from the 1990s indicating that pay at around this level had historically been necessary to enable the military to recruit and retain the quality and quantity of personnel required. In addition, by law, the annual increase in military basic pay is guided by changes in the Employment Cost Index (ECI), a measure of the growth in private-sector employment costs; research from the early 1990s suggested that an alternative to the ECI, the Defense Employment Cost Index (DECI), would be more relevant to military personnel. The authors of this report provide input on the setting of the level of military pay, the relevance of the 70th percentile, and the use of the DECI versus the ECI in setting the annual adjustment to military pay. They find that current military pay may be too high, since recruit quality today exceeds DoD's stated requirements, and, further, quality and retention both exceed the levels observed during the late 1980s and mid-1990s, when the 70th percentile was established. However, the 70th percentile may be too low a benchmark, because there are reasons to believe that the recruiting environment is more difficult than it was in earlier periods. Figures of around the 75th to 80th percentile for enlisted personnel and of around the 75th percentile for officers are likely to meet existing recruit quality objectives. Assessing the ECI versus the DECI, the authors conclude DoD should consider replacing or supplanting the former with the latter. The DECI has several advantages over the ECI, and most of the critiques of the DECI have been addressed by advances in data availability and computing power in recent decades.
Military pensions. --- United States --- Armed Forces --- Pay, allowances, etc.
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The government of Puerto Rico developed a plan to recover from the destruction caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, build resilience to withstand future disasters, and restore the struggling economy. The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC), operated by RAND Corporation under contract with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, worked with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to assist with the development of the plan. Acting in support of FEMA's Education sector, HSOAC analyzed data sources to conduct an assessment of the damage and recovery needs, and engaged with stakeholders to identify recovery courses of action, costs, and possible funding mechanisms. Education system reforms initiated prior to the hurricanes and poststorm legislation set the strategy for the recovery actions. This report details prestorm conditions, assesses the damage and recovery needs, and describes the courses of action represented in the recovery plan for the Education sector. The analyses, coupled with discussions with local education stakeholders and subject-matter experts, informed the development of 13 courses of action to support Puerto Rico's recovery plan and efforts to transform the education system. The courses of action cover four major themes related to Education sector recovery: rebuilding, repairing, and upgrading infrastructure; strengthening and supporting the government's K–12 system reform; expanding and improving out-of-school and preschool learning opportunities; and increasing access to vocational, technical, and career education and strengthening school-to-work transitions.
Education and state --- Educational change --- Hurricane Maria, 2017. --- Hurricane Irma, 2017. --- Hurricane damage --- Puerto Rico.
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Recovery of the Puerto Rico economy in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria means not only rebuilding the public and private infrastructure, supply chains, human capital, and other contributors to economic output but also reversing negative economic trends that existed and presented major challenges to growth even before the storms hit. In their report, the authors explain the history of economic development and policy in Puerto Rico and discuss the state of the prestorm economy, including key economic challenges. They use the historical data on overall economic activity (unrelated to the hurricanes) to construct a counterfactual to assess the net causal effect of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on Puerto Rico's economy. The counterfactual examines what would have happened to employment, labor, population, and tourism, as well as the government of Puerto Rico's fiscal position, had the hurricanes not occurred. Observed economic indicators following the storms are then compared to this counterfactual to estimate the real net economic consequences of the hurricanes, including overall damage from the storms and the effect of the recovery effort. The analysis provides considerable detail on the conditions in Puerto Rico before and after the 2017 hurricane season so that decisionmakers can adopt better policies in rebuilding a sustainable and healthy economic sector and, more broadly, the whole of Puerto Rico. The authors recommend a set of principles based on economic theory and provide courses of action included in the recovery plan compiled from their findings about prestorm conditions and trends and the input/observations of on-the-ground partners and stakeholders in the recovery effort.
Hurricane Irma, 2017. --- Hurricane Maria, 2017. --- Hurricane damage --- 2000-2099 --- Puerto Rico --- Puerto Rico. --- Economic conditions
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