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The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced in April 2018 a target of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the sector by 50 percent below 2008 levels by 2050 and subsequent meetings of the IMO will develop a strategy for making headway on this commitment. This paper seeks to inform dialogue about the possibility of a carbon tax as a key element of GHG mitigation policy for international maritime transport. The paper discusses the case for the tax over alternative mitigation instruments, options for the practical design issues, and then presents estimates of the impacts of carbon taxation and other instruments from an analytical model of the maritime sector.

Carbon taxes. --- Carbon tax --- Environmental impact charges --- Emissions trading --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Climate change --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Public expenditure review --- Fuel prices --- Revenue administration --- Taxes --- Environment --- Expenditure --- Greenhouse gases --- Expenditures, Public --- Revenue --- Canada

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• Reference Manager
• EndNote
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The International Maritime Organization's initial strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the international shipping sector should assess the impacts on states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i) identifies four areas of economic impacts and their relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for selecting and applying these approaches in impact assessments. The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4 percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1 percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be modest (-0.002 percent to -1 percent of GDP).

Climate Change and Environment --- Climate Change and Health --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Emissions --- Environment --- Greenhouse Gas (GHG) --- Initial Strategy --- International --- International Economics and Trade --- International Maritime Organization (IMO) --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Maritime --- Mitigation Measures --- Modeling --- Modelling --- Models --- Reduction --- Science of Climate Change --- Shipping --- Trade and Services --- Transport