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Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.

Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Statistics --- Forecasting --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic Forecasting --- Cyclical indicators --- Economic and financial statistics --- Economic forecasting --- Business cycles --- Econometric models --- Econometric analysis --- Economic statistics --- Argentina

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The 2015 Supply Chain Management Review lays out a sound agenda for procurement reform. The ongoing work on a new procurement bill and regulations are an important opportunity to spearhead procurement reform and step-up implementation. Several important reform aspects worth prioritizing are the simplification and standardization of aprocurement procedures, the standardization of transparency requirements through the adoption of the Open Contracting Data Standards, transitioning to a new e-procurement system that is linked to the government’s integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and other systems, making preferential procurement more cost effective and goal oriented, and strengthening staff capacity to carry out procurement. Opportunities to centralize procurement should be further explored to leverage and develop limited capacity.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Information Management --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Public Goods --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Procurement --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Public finance & taxation --- Civil service & public sector --- Data capture & analysis --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Public sector --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Integrated financial management information systems --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Expenditure efficiency --- Open data --- Technology --- International agencies --- Finance, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Open Data Protocol --- South Africa

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This paper studies the factors behind pro-cyclical but widely varying construction shares (as a percent of GDP) across countries, with a strong focus on European countries. Using a dataset covering 48 countries (including advanced and emerging economies within and outside Europe) for 1990-2011, we find that country’s geography, demographics, and economic conditions are the key determinants of a norm around which actual construction shares revolve in a simple AR(1) and error-correction process. The empirical results show that in many European countries, construction shares overshoot relative to their norms before the recent global crisis, but they have fallen significantly since the crisis. Nevertheless, there is still room for further adjustment in construction shares in some countries which may weigh on economic recovery.

Business cycles --- Construction industry --- Building industry --- Home building industry --- Building --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic aspects --- Finance: General --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Business Fluctuations --- Construction --- Economic History: Manufacturing and Construction: Europe: 1913 --- -General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Stock markets --- Capital spending --- Expenditure --- Income --- Financial markets --- National accounts --- Stock exchanges --- Capital investments --- Expenditures, Public --- Saving and investment --- Spain

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Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 1½ percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.

Fiscal policy --- Gross domestic product --- Industrial productivity --- Economic development --- Productivity, Industrial --- TFP (Total factor productivity) --- Total factor productivity --- Industrial efficiency --- Production (Economic theory) --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Budgeting & financial management --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Fiscal stance --- Budget planning and preparation --- Production growth --- Production --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Economic theory --- Budget --- Ireland