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Statistics. --- Statistique --- Statistical analysis --- Statistical data --- Statistical methods --- Statistical science --- Mathematics --- Econometrics --- Statistics
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Probability theory --- Stochastic processes --- Probabilities --- Mathematical statistics --- Probabilités --- Statistique mathématique --- 519.2 --- Probability --- Statistical inference --- Combinations --- Mathematics --- Chance --- Least squares --- Risk --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Probability. Mathematical statistics --- Statistical methods --- 519.2 Probability. Mathematical statistics --- Probabilités --- Statistique mathématique
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Mathematical statistics --- -681.3*A0 --- 681.3*I0 --- 681.3*I3 --- Mathematics --- Statistical inference --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Probabilities --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Congresses --- General --- Computerwetenschap--?*I0 --- Computer graphics (Computing methodologies) --- Statistical methods --- 681.3*I3 Computer graphics (Computing methodologies) --- 681.3*A0 General --- 681.3*A0
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A new model is proposed for representinq the term to maturity structure of interest rates at a point in time.The model produces humped, monotonic and S-shaped yield curves using four parameters. Conditional on a time decay parameter, estimates of the other three are obtained by least squares. Yield curves for thirty-seven sets of U.S. Treasury bill yields with maturities up to one year are presented. The median standard deviation of fit is just over seven basis points and the corresponding median R-squared is .96. Study of residuals suggests the existence of specific maturity effects not previously identified. Using the models to predict the price of a long term bond provides a diagnostic check and suggests directions for further research.
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We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency when there is conditioning information in the form of a set of lagged instruments. A model of expected returns identifies a portfolio that should be minimum variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our tests refine previous tests of portfolio efficiency, using the conditioning information optimally. We reject the efficiency of all static or time-varying combinations of the three Fama-French (1996) factors with respect to the conditioning information and also the conditional efficiency of time-varying combinations of the factors, given standard lagged instruments.
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