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Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Turnover --- Vacancies --- Layoffs --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor force --- Labor markets --- Unemployment rate --- Labor flows --- Labor market --- United States --- Income economics

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Using the U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the Pandemic Crisis and those of the Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics–“social” (where individuals interact to consume goods), “teleworkable” (where individuals have the option of working at home), and “essential” jobs (which were not subject to government mandated shut-downs during the recent recession), and (iii) wage distributions. We find that young and less educated workers have always been affected more in recessions, while women and Hispanics were more severely affected during the Pandemic Recession. Surprisingly, teleworkable, social and essential jobs have been historically less cyclical. This historical acyclicality of teleworkable occupations is attributable to its higher share of skilled workers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fell more whereas employment in teleworkable and essential jobs fell less during the Pandemic Crisis. Lastly, during both recessions, workers at low-income earnings have suffered more than top-income earners, suggesting a significant distributional impact of the two recessions.

Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Diseases: Contagious --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope --- Financial Crises --- Labor Economics: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Health Behavior --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Unemployment rate --- Financial crises --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Communicable diseases --- United States

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the Pandemic Crisis and those of the Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics,(ii) job characteristics–“social” (where individuals interact to consume goods),“teleworkable” (where individuals have the option of working at home), and “essential” jobs(which were not subject to government mandated shut-downs during the recent recession), and (iii)wage distributions. We find that young and less educated workers have always been affected morein recessions, while women and Hispanics were more severely affected during the PandemicRecession. Surprisingly, teleworkable, social and essential jobs have been historically less cyclical.This historical acyclicality of teleworkable occupations is attributable to its higher share of skilledworkers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fellmore whereas employment in teleworkable and essential jobs fell less during the Pandemic Crisis.Lastly, during both recessions, workers at low-income earnings have suffered more than topincomeearners, suggesting a significant distributional impact of the two recessions.

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This paper analyzes Portugal's labor market and digitalization trends during COVID-19. Portugal had a milder impact on its labor market than previous recessions, with smaller employment declines and less unemployment. However, labor force participation sharply dropped, especially among low-skilled and young workers. Contact-intensive and non-digital jobs and young and low-skilled workers were disproportionately affected. Conversely, digital employment in Portugal grew while non-digital employment decreased. Regression analysis for Europe and the US suggests a temporary rise in digital employment during the pandemic. Policy emphasis on digitalization investments and skills development is crucial for a resilient labor market in Portugal, considering future shocks.

Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Diffusion Processes --- Digitalization --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic theory --- Employment --- Health Behavior --- Health --- Human Capital --- Income economics --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Information technology industries --- Information technology --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Labor Demand --- Labor Economics Policies --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Turnover --- Labor --- Labour --- Layoffs --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Occupational Choice --- Skills --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technology --- Time Allocation and Labor Supply --- Unemployment --- Vacancies --- Wages --- Portugal

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This paper studies whether labor market mismatch played an important role for labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply the framework of S¸ahin et al. (2014) to the US and the UK to measure misallocation between job seekers and vacancies across sectors until the third quarter of 2021. We find that mismatch rose sharply at the onset of the pandemic but returned to previous levels within a few quarters. Consequently, the total loss in employment caused by the rise in mismatch was smaller during the COVID-19 pandemic than during the Global Financial Crisis. The results are robust to considering alternative definitions of job seekers and to using a measure of effective job seekers in each sector. Preliminary evidence suggests that increased inactivity among older workers, the so called She-cession (particularly in the US) and shifting worker preferences amid strong labor demand are more prominent explanations for the persistent employment shortfall vis-à-vis pre-COVID levels.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Diseases: Contagious --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics Policies --- Time Allocation and Labor Supply --- Labor Demand --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Turnover --- Vacancies --- Layoffs --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Health Behavior --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Labor markets --- Labor force --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Communicable diseases --- Economic theory --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009