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For a year and a half, Russia has been living under sanctions. The restrictive measures were imposed as a response to its continued violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. The sanctions were crafted by an informal coalition of states politically and economically representing the West. Despite the Western nature of the sanctions, Russian and non-Russian companies (including Chinese) involved in Western markets tacitly respected the sanctions as well. Although the sanctions were designed to have a cumulative effect in the mid to long term, they still have taken a heavy toll on Russia in the short term. As part of Russia's adaptation to the sanctions regime, the country's governing elites embarked on both an open and covert campaign to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions, prevent new restrictions by the West, and remove ones already in place. To support the economy and its defence projects, Russia pushed for import substitution programmes, which face an uncertain investment climate, a shortage of qualified workforce, a lack of private investment capital and knowhow. As the West ruled out "lethal protection" of Ukraine, the sanctions came to represent an efficient, low-cost tool to shelter Ukraine and constrain Russia's power. The sanctions will remain an important element of Western strategy towards Russia. However, sanctions are not a universal answer and should be supported by other tools. As this report suggests, a creative approach to reach out to the Russian population, which is misinformed about the West and kept in the dark about the country's domestic problems, should be part of Western strategy on Russia. Certainly, the door for engagement with Russia should remain open, too. But, this engagement should be a principled one so that the threshold for spheres-of-influence deals is hermetically closed.
Economic sanctions. --- Economic policy. --- Russia (Federation) --- Foreign relations.
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The war in Syria has put Russia at the centre of Middle Eastern politics. Moscow's return to the region following a prolonged period of absence has enhanced its geopolitical status at a time it has emerged as a rival to the West. Yet, contrary to the media hype, Vladimir Putin is not set to become the new power-broker in this strategically important part of the world. Co-authored by a team of prominent scholars and analysts from the EU, US, Russia and the Middle East, this book explores Russia's role in the Middle East and North Africa, the diverse drivers shaping its policy, and the response from local players. Chapters map out the history of Russian involvement, before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the impact on key issues such as security and defence, regional conflicts, arms trade, and energy, as well as relations influential states and country clusters such as Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and the Maghreb. It also looks at how the Middle East impacts on Russia's relations with the West. The book offers a balanced assessment of Russian influence, highlighting both the political, diplomatic and commercial gains made thanks to Putin's decision in September 2015 to intervene militarily in Syria and the constraints preventing Moscow from replacing the United States as a regional hegemon.
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