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This paper examines the patterns of growth of Poland, and its transition into high-income status over the past two decades from a macro and micro perspective. It benchmarks Polish performance with that observed in established high-income countries, and with that of others that have been trapped in middle--income levels and examines the role that integration into the EU had on growth. The analysis reveals, first, that Poland's growth process has been accompanied by a process of diversification of assets, including institutions, physical and human capital. Second, that the progressive integration into the EU bloc boosted growth and productivity because of three keyfactors: (i) increased openness to trade, investment and talent, (ii) increased domestic competition, and regulatory harmonization with EU, (iii) increased certainty in reforms, through a commitment to EU-institutions. Third, that for full convergence to high-income levels, Polish firms need to increase their innovative capacities. The paper extracts lessons applicable to other economies trapped in middle-income levels, as well as to Poland itself to consolidate growth looking forward.
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The report Jobs or Privileges: Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa shows that policies that lower competition and create an uneven playing field are common and constrain private sector job creation. These policies take different forms across countries and sectors but share several common features: They limit free entry in the domestic market, exclude certain firms from government programs, increase regulatory burden and uncertainty on the majority of firms, insulate certain firms and sectors from foreign competition, and create incentives that discourage dom
Labor market --- Manpower policy --- Employment policy --- Human resource development --- Labor market policy --- Manpower utilization --- Labor policy --- Labor supply --- Trade adjustment assistance --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Markets --- Government policy --- Supply and demand
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This paper presents empirical evidence on the impact of competition on firm productivity. Using firm-level observations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey database, we find a positive and robust causal relationship between our proxies for competition and our measures of productivity. We also find that countries that implemented product-market reforms had a more pronounced increase in competition, and correspondingly, in productivity: the contribution to productivity growth due to competition spurred by product-market reforms is around 12-15 percent.
Industrial productivity --- Competition, International. --- Industrial management. --- Business administration --- Business enterprises --- Business management --- Corporate management --- Corporations --- Industrial administration --- Management, Industrial --- Rationalization of industry --- Scientific management --- Management --- Business --- Industrial organization --- International competition --- World economics --- International relations --- International trade --- War --- Productivity, Industrial --- TFP (Total factor productivity) --- Total factor productivity --- Industrial efficiency --- Production (Economic theory) --- Economic aspects --- Finance: General --- Production and Operations Management --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Competition --- Productivity --- Commodity markets --- Labor productivity --- Commodity exchanges --- Georgia
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This paper uses an original database of 469 politically connected firms under the Mubarak regime in Egypt to explore the economic effects of close state-business relations. Previous research has shown that political connections are lucrative. The paper addresses several questions raised by this research. Do connected firms receive favorable regulatory treatment? They do: connected firms are more likely to benefit from trade protection, energy subsidies, access to land, and regulatory enforcement. Does regulatory capture account for the high value of connected firms? In the sample, regulatory capture as revealed by energy subsidies and trade protection account for the higher profits of politically connected firms. Do politically connected firms hurt aggregate growth? The paper identifies the growth effects of the entry of politically connected firms by comparing detailed 4-digit sectors where they entered, between 1996 and 2006, and sectors that remained unconnected. The entry of connected firms into new, modern, and previously unconnected sectors slows aggregate employment growth and skews the distribution of employment toward less productive, smaller firms.
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In Spring 2020, Western Balkan countries - like most others in the world-have been forced to impose tight restrictions on economic life to contain the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic. In the first half of 2020, the world has seen explosive growth of infections with the deadly novel virus. As country after country has been forced to shut down large areas of social and economic life to slow contagion, the Western Balkans have not been spared. The first cases were recognized as early as the first week of March. As of April 27, 2020, the Johns Hopkins corona virus data center now reports that over 11,000 cases have been confirmed in the six countries in the region. In response, all six have enforced lockdowns and strict social distancing measures. International airports in all countries were closed for passenger traffic. The initial lockdowns have been extended. The capitals of Kosovo and Albania are under quarantine, as are other cities in the region. Key economic sectors, such as restaurants and nonessential retail, have been shut down. Travel and social gatherings have been restricted or banned, and schools and universities have been closed. The RER No. 17 is a collection of notes on the Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19. This includes three Notes: "Setting the stage: Reviewing the state and vulnerabilities of the Western Balkan Economies as they face COVID-19"; "Outlook: Hard Times Require Good Economics"; and the Western Balkan Country Notes.
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This paper uses an original database of 469 politically connected firms under the Mubarak regime in Egypt to explore the economic effects of close state-business relations. Previous research has shown that political connections are lucrative. The paper addresses several questions raised by this research. Do connected firms receive favorable regulatory treatment? They do: connected firms are more likely to benefit from trade protection, energy subsidies, access to land, and regulatory enforcement. Does regulatory capture account for the high value of connected firms? In the sample, regulatory capture as revealed by energy subsidies and trade protection account for the higher profits of politically connected firms. Do politically connected firms hurt aggregate growth? The paper identifies the growth effects of the entry of politically connected firms by comparing detailed 4-digit sectors where they entered, between 1996 and 2006, and sectors that remained unconnected. The entry of connected firms into new, modern, and previously unconnected sectors slows aggregate employment growth and skews the distribution of employment toward less productive, smaller firms.
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This paper presents new evidence that cronyism reduces long-term economic growth by discouraging firms' innovation activities. The analysis is based on novel establishment survey data from The Arab Republic of Egypt which provides information on establishments' political connections, their innovation activities, and their access to policy privileges. The analysis finds that the probability that firms invest in products new to the firm increases from under 1 percent for politically connected firms to over 7 percent for unconnected firms. The results are robust across different innovation measures. Despite innovating less, politically connected firms are more capital intensive, as they face lower marginal cost of capital due to the generous policy privileges they receive, including exclusive access to input subsidies, public procurement contracts, favorable exchange rates, and financing from politically connected banks. These privileges are largest when compared with their direct competitors operating in the same 4-digit sectors. The findings suggest that connected firms out-rival their competitors by lobbying for privileges instead of innovating. In the aggregate, these policy privileges reduce Egypt's long-term growth potential by diverting resources away from innovation to the inefficient capital accumulation of a few large, connected firms. A wide array of supporting evidence suggests that this effect is causal and not due to selection.
Access of Poor to Social Services --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Common Carriers Industry --- Construction Industry --- Cronyism --- De Facto Governments --- Democratic Government --- Disability --- Economic Assistance --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Energy Policies and Economics --- Energy Privatization --- Firm-Level Data --- Food and Beverage Industry --- General Manufacturing --- Governance --- Industrial Economics --- Innovation --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Plastics and Rubber Industry --- Political Connections --- Private Sector Development --- Privatization --- Productivity --- Pulp and Paper Industry --- Resource Allocation --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Textiles Apparel and Leather Industry
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This paper presents a simple model with financial frictions where inflation increases the cost faced by firms holding liquid assets to hedge risky production against expenditure shocks. Inflation tilts firms' technology choice away from innovative activities and toward safer but return-dominated ones, and therefore reduces long-run growth. The theory makes specific predictions about how the severity of this adverse effect depends on industry characteristics. These predictions are tested with novel harmonized firm-level data from 139 developing countries, overcoming small sample problems constraining previous work. The analysis finds that inflation affects the composition but not the overall quantity of investment. A one percentage point increase in inflation reduces the establishment-level probability of innovation by 4.3 percent but does not affect total investment. Moreover, innovating firms display a stronger dependence on liquid assets, which, in turn, are negatively related to inflation. Generalized difference-in-differences estimations corroborate the sector-specific predictions of the theoretical model.
Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Employment and Unemployment --- Governance --- Industrial Economics --- Industry --- Inflation --- Innovation --- Investment --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Nation --- National Governance --- Public Sector Development --- Quality of Life and Leisure --- Social Analysis --- Social Development --- Social Protections and Labor --- Technology Choice --- Transport --- Youth and Governance
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Using firm-level data for Jordan, the paper estimates the extent to which growth spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms stem from persistent learning externalities (i.e., they endure even after foreign investment leaves as knowledge has been transferred to local firms) or from transitory effects (e.g., demand increases that evaporate following isinvestment). The paper find that spillovers have a significant transitory nature, with employment and capital growth declining when FDI falls, particularly in downstream industries supplied by locals. This suggests that if FDI-attracting policies are intended to promote sustainable growth, it may be more effective to attract and retain FDI via long-term structural policies, for instance, through low corporate tax rates rather than temporary tax holidays or through policies that strengthen the domestic absorptive capacity and linkages between foreign and local firms.
Economic Theory and Research. --- Emerging Markets. --- FDI. --- Foreign Direct Investment. --- International Economics and Trade. --- Investment and Investment Climate. --- Labor Policies. --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. --- Private Sector Development. --- Social Protections and Labor. --- Spillovers.
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Using firm-level data for Jordan, the paper estimates the extent to which growth spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms stem from persistent learning externalities (i.e., they endure even after foreign investment leaves as knowledge has been transferred to local firms) or from transitory effects (e.g., demand increases that evaporate following isinvestment). The paper find that spillovers have a significant transitory nature, with employment and capital growth declining when FDI falls, particularly in downstream industries supplied by locals. This suggests that if FDI-attracting policies are intended to promote sustainable growth, it may be more effective to attract and retain FDI via long-term structural policies, for instance, through low corporate tax rates rather than temporary tax holidays or through policies that strengthen the domestic absorptive capacity and linkages between foreign and local firms.
Economic Theory and Research. --- Emerging Markets. --- FDI. --- Foreign Direct Investment. --- International Economics and Trade. --- Investment and Investment Climate. --- Labor Policies. --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. --- Private Sector Development. --- Social Protections and Labor. --- Spillovers.
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