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Supply and Shorting in Speculative Markets
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We propose a continuous-time model of trading among risk-neutral agents with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents face quadratic costs-of-carry on their positions and as a consequence, their marginal valuation of the asset decreases when the magnitude of their position increases, as it would be the case for risk-averse agents. In the equilibrium models of investors with heterogeneous beliefs that followed the original work by Harrison and Kreps, investors are risk-neutral, short-selling is prohibited and agents face a constant marginal cost of carrying positions. The resulting resale option guarantees that the equilibrium price exceeds the price of the asset in a static buy-and-hold model where speculation is ruled out. Our model features three main novelties. First, increasing marginal costs entail that the price depends on the exogenous supply. Second, in addition to the resale option, agents may also value an option to delay, and this may cause the market to equilibrate below the static buy-and-hold price. Third, we introduce the possibility of short-selling; then the resale option for agents with short positions partly compensates the resale option for long agents. We characterize the unique equilibrium of our model through a Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation of a novel form and use it to derive several comparative statics results.


Digital
Long term risk: an operator approach
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Year: 2006 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Book
Speculation, trading, and bubbles
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0231159021 1322541558 0231537638 9780231537636 9781322541556 9780231159029 Year: 2014 Publisher: New York : Columbia University Press,

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As long as there have been financial markets, there have been bubbles-those moments in which asset prices inflate far beyond their intrinsic value, often with ruinous results. Yet economists are slow to agree on the underlying forces behind these events. In this book José A. Scheinkman offers new insight into the mystery of bubbles. Noting some general characteristics of bubbles-such as the rise in trading volume and the coincidence between increases in supply and bubble implosions-Scheinkman offers a model, based on differences in beliefs among investors, that explains these observations. Other top economists also offer their own thoughts on the issue: Sanford J. Grossman and Patrick Bolton expand on Scheinkman's discussion by looking at factors that contribute to bubbles-such as excessive leverage, overconfidence, mania, and panic in speculative markets-and Kenneth J. Arrow and Joseph E. Stiglitz contextualize Scheinkman's findings.


Book
Neither a borrower nor a lender be: an economic analysis of interest restrictions and usury laws
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Year: 1994 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass.

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Digital
Outside and Inside Liquidity
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass National Bureau of Economic Research

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We consider a model of liquidity demand arising from a possible maturity mismatch between asset revenues and consumption. This liquidity demand can be met with either cash reserves (inside liquidity) or via asset sales for cash (outside liquidity). The question we address is, what determines the mix of inside and outside liquidity in equilibrium? An important source of inefficiency in our model is the presence of asymmetric information about asset values, which increases the longer a liquidity trade is delayed. We establish existence of an immediate-trading equilibrium, in which asset trading occurs in anticipation of a liquidity shock, and sometimes also of a delayed-trading equilibrium, in which assets are traded in response to a liquidity shock. We show that, when it exists, the delayed-trading equilibrium is Pareto superior to the immediate-trading equilibrium, despite the presence of adverse selection. However, the presence of adverse selection may inefficiently accelerate asset liquidation. We also show that the delayed-trading equilibrium features more outside liquidity than the immediate-trading equilibrium although it is supplied in the presence of adverse selection. Finally, long term contracts do not always dominate the market provision of liquidity.


Digital
Cream Skimming in Financial Markets
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Year: 2011 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We propose an equilibrium occupational choice model, where agents can choose to work in the real sector (become entrepreneurs) or to become informed dealers in financial markets. Agents incur costs to become informed dealers and develop skills for valuing assets up for trade. The financial sector comprises a transparent competitive exchange, where uninformed agents trade and an opaque over-the-counter (OTC) market, where informed dealers offer attractive terms for the most valuable assets entrepreneurs put up for sale. Thanks to their information advantage and valuation skills, dealers are able to provide incentives to entrepreneurs to originate good assets. However, the opaqueness of the OTC market allows dealers to extract informational rents from entrepreneurs. Trade in the OTC market imposes a negative externality on the organized exchange, where only the less valuable assets end up for trade. We show that in equilibrium the dealers' informational rents in the OTC market are too large and attract too much talent to the financial industry.


Digital
Non-market interactions
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Year: 2000 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Digital
The injustice of inequality
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Year: 2002 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Executive compensation and short-termist behavior in speculative markets
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Year: 2003 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Digital
Asset float and speculative bubbles
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Year: 2005 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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