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Book
Statistique : principes et méthodes
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 2326003098 9782326003095 Year: 2023 Publisher: Paris : Pearson,

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Abstract

Bête noire des étudiants, les statistiques sont présentes dans tous les cursus et disciplines, aussi bien en sciences dites dures (mathématiques, physique, biologie, etc.) que commerciales (marketing, distribution, communication, etc.) ou qu’en sciences humaines (économie, sociologie, géographie, etc.). Or, la statistique est à la portée de tous, à condition d’être bien expliquée. Ce manuel a été mis au point en tenant compte des besoins et attentes des étudiants : toujours mis en contexte, les concepts sont abordés de manière progressive. Les définitions, les applications concrètes et les astuces techniques (Excel et Wolfram Alpha) sont systématiquement mises en avant. Cet ouvrage vous fournit toutes les bases nécessaires pour : remédier à vos difficultés et vous rappeler les fondamentaux ; analyser et décrire des phénomènes et tendances à l’aide de graphiques ; traiter des données bivariées ; utiliser les tables de probabilités les plus courantes (loi normale, loi de Poisson…) ; constituer un échantillon représentatif ; réaliser des estimations ponctuelles et par intervalle ; tester des hypothèses et comparer des populations ; réaliser des projections, etc.


Book
On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Reserves During the 2021-22 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves can explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening that led to a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Across a broad sample of countries, we document that an additional 10 percentage points of FX reserves/GDP held ex-ante were associated with 1.5 to 2 percent less exchange rate depreciation and this buffer effect was larger among less financially developed economies. Effects were more pronounced for large-reserve countries that sold reserves to intervene than for large-reserve countries that did not intervene, lending support to the presence of both balance sheet and intervention channels. Higher ex-ante policy rates were also associated with less depreciation especially among financially open economies. An analysis of daily currency movements following the June 2021 FOMC meeting corroborates these results. These findings suggest that FX reserves may promote monetary policy independence in the presence of global spillovers.

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Book
Artificial Intelligence and the Skill Premium
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2024 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function that distinguishes among three types of capital: traditional physical capital (machines, assembly lines), industrial robots, and AI. Following the literature, we assume that industrial robots predominantly substitute for low-skill workers, whereas AI mainly helps to perform the tasks of high-skill workers. We show that AI reduces the skill premium as long as it is more substitutable for high-skill workers than low-skill workers are for high-skill workers.

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Book
Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2023 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship between the real exchange rate and international reserves using nonlinear regressions and panel threshold regressions over 110 countries from 2001 to 2020. We find the buffer effect of international reserves is more pronounced in Europe and Central Asia above a threshold of 17% of international reserves over GDP. Our study shows the level of financial-institution development plays an essential role in explaining the buffer effect of international reserves. Countries with a low development of their financial institutions may manage the international reserves as a shield to deal with the negative consequences of terms-of-trade shocks on the real exchange rate. We also find the buffer effect is stronger in countries with intermediate levels of financial openness.

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Book
The Performance of Emerging Markets During the Fed's Easing and Tightening Cycles : A Cross-Country Resilience Analysis
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2024 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We investigate the determinants of emerging markets performance during five U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles during 2004 - 2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an Emerging Market (EM) at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during each cycle. More specifically, our baseline cross-sectional regressions examine how those conditions affect three measures of resilience, namely bilateral exchange rate against the USD, exchange rate market pressure, and country-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International index (MSCI). We then stack the five cross-sections to build a panel database to investigate potential asymmetry between tightening versus easing cycles. Our evidence indicates that macroeconomic and institutional variables are associated with EM performance, determinants of resilience differ during tightening versus easing cycles, and institutions matter more during difficult times. Our specific findings are largely consistent with economic intuition. For instance, we find that current account balance, international reserves, and inflation are all important determinants of EM resilience.

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