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Government financial assets are increasingly recognized as playing an important role in assessing fiscal sustainability. However, very little research has been done on the dynamics of government financial assets compared to liabilities. In this paper, we investigate the impact of recent financial crises and macroeconomic shocks on government balance sheets, decomposing the separate effects on financial assets and liabilities. Using quarterly Government Finance Statistics (GFS) data, we analyze a panel of 27 countries over the period 1999Q1-2017Q1 through fixed effects and panel VAR techniques. Financial crises are shown to deteriorate the net financial worth of governments, but no significant impact is found on assets suggesting that they are not being used as fiscal buffers in bad times. On the contrary, countries that suffered both financial and banking crises experienced an “artificial” increase of their asset position through bank bailouts. Macroeconomic shock analyses reveal that government balance sheet items are countercyclical, but important asymmetries are found in their dynamics.

Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Accounting --- Budgeting --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Financial Crises --- Crisis Management --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Financial statements --- Financial crises --- Government liabilities --- Public debt --- Fiscal policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Finance, Public --- Budget --- Debts, Public --- Norway

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This paper investigates the dynamic impact of natural resource discoveries on government debt sustainability. We use a ‘natural experiment’ framework in which the timing of discoveries is treated as an exogenous source of within-country variation. We combine data on government debt, fiscal stress and debt distress episodes on a large panel of countries over 1970-2012, with a global repository of giant oil, gas, and mineral discoveries. We find strong and robust evidence of a ‘fiscal presource curse’, i.e., natural resources can jeopardize fiscal sustainability even before ‘the first drop of oil is pumped’. Specifically, we find that giant discoveries, mostly of oil and gas, lead to permanently higher government debt and, eventually, debt distress episodes, specially in countries with weaker political institutions and governance. This evidence suggest that the curse can be mitigated and even prevented by pursuing prudent fiscal policies and borrowing strategies, strengthening fiscal governance, and implementing transparent and robust fiscal frameworks for resource management.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Natural Resources --- Investments: Energy --- Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Energy: General --- Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics --- Environmental and Ecological Economics: General --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Environmental management --- Investment & securities --- Public debt --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Oil --- Commodities --- Natural resources --- Non-renewable resources --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Mozambique, Republic of

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What is the impact of greater teacher autonomy on student learning? This paper provides experimental evidence from a program in Brazil. The program supported teachers, through a combination of technical assistance and a small grant, to autonomously develop and implement an innovative project aimed at engaging their students. The findings show that the program improved student learning by 0.15 standard deviation and grade passing by 13 percent in sixth grade, a critical year of transition from primary to lower-secondary education. The paper explores two mechanisms: teacher turnover and student socio-emotional skills. Teacher turnover is reduced by 20.7 percent, and the impacts on student outcomes are concentrated in the schools with the largest reductions. The findings also indicate positive impacts on conscientiousness and extroversion among the students. The results suggest that increasing the autonomy of public servants can improve service delivery, even in a low-capacity context.

Education --- Education Outcomes --- Education Policy --- Education Reform --- Education Reform and Management --- Effective Schools and Teachers --- Secondary Education --- Socioemotional Skills --- Teacher Autonomy --- Teacher Effectiveness --- Teacher Motivation