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Book
Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462336620 1452776326 1451870507 9786612841439 1282841432 1451915039 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/192 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Empirical analysis does not suggest that reserves are "too high" in the majority of Asian countries, though China may be a special case. Much of the reserve increase in Asia can be explained by an optimal insurance model under which reserves provide a steady source of liquidity to cushion the impact of a sudden stop in capital inflows on output and consumption. Moreover, the benefits of reserves in terms of reduced spreads on privately held external debt further explains the observed growth in reserves since 1997-98. Using threshold estimation techniques, the paper shows that most of Asia can still benefit from higher reserves in terms of reduced borrowing costs.


Book
Are Workers' Remittances a Hedge Against Macroeconomic Shocks? the Case of Sri Lanka
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462387128 1452798567 128351155X 1451910398 9786613824004 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We estimate a vector error correction (VEC) model for Sri Lanka to determine the response of remittance receipts to macroeconomic shocks. This is the first attempt of its kind in the literature. We find that remittance receipts are procyclical and decline when the island's currency weakens, undermining their usefulness as shock absorber. On the other hand, remittances increase in response to oil price shocks, reflecting the fact that most overseas. Sri Lankan are employed in the Gulf states. The procyclicality of remittances calls into question the notion that remittances are largely motivated by altruism.


Book
Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462347800 1452704759 128244784X 1451907893 9786613821041 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

There has been little systematic empirical study on the relationship between remittances and growth. This paper attempts to examine this relationship. Using a newly constructed crosscountry of data series for remittances covering a large sample of developing countries, we relate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on growth. We analyze how a country's capacity to use remittances and its effectiveness in doing so might be influenced by local financial sector conditions. Given the difficulty of borrowing in developing countries, we explore the hypothesis that remittances can substitute for a lack of financial development and hence promote growth. The empirical analysis shows that remittances can promote growth in less financially developed countries. This relationship controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of sensitivity tests.


Book
Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462376053 1452780420 1283517760 9786613830210 1451907788 1451862423 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Do Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) suffer from a debt overhang? Is debt relief going to improve their growth rates? To answer these important questions, we look at how the debt-growth relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a panel of developing countries. Our findings suggest that there is a negative marginal relationship between debt and growth at intermediate levels of debt, but not at very low debt levels, below the “debt overhang” threshold, or at very high levels, above the “debt irrelevance” threshold. Countries with good policies and institutions face overhang when debt rises above 15-30 percent of GDP, but the marginal effect of debt on growth becomes irrelevant above 70-80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, overhang and irrelevance thresholds seem to be lower, but we cannot rule out the possibility that debt does not matter at all.


Book
A Gravity Model of Workers’ Remittances
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1451865503 1462308422 1451910037 9786613822789 1452738025 1282626450 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper creates the first dataset of bilateral remittance flows for a limited set of developing countries and estimates a gravity model for workers' remittances. We find that most of the variation in bilateral remittance flows can be explained by a few gravity variables. The evidence on the motives to remit is mixed, but altruism may be less of a factor than commonly believed. Most strikingly, remittances do not seem to increase in the wake of a natural disaster and appear aligned with the business cycle in the home country, suggesting that remittances may not play a major role in limiting vulnerability to shocks. To encourage remittances and maximize their economic impact, policies should be directed at reducing transaction costs, promoting financial sector development, and improving the business climate.


Book
The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities : A New Dataset
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1498306543 1475518641 149830625X Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6 percent of GDP but costs can be as high as 40 percent for major financial sector bailouts. Contingent liability realizations are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of growth reversals and crises, accentuating pressure on the budget during already difficult times. Countries with stronger institutions are able to better control and address the underlying risks so that they are less exposed to contingent liability realizations.

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