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Empirical analysis does not suggest that reserves are "too high" in the majority of Asian countries, though China may be a special case. Much of the reserve increase in Asia can be explained by an optimal insurance model under which reserves provide a steady source of liquidity to cushion the impact of a sudden stop in capital inflows on output and consumption. Moreover, the benefits of reserves in terms of reduced spreads on privately held external debt further explains the observed growth in reserves since 1997-98. Using threshold estimation techniques, the paper shows that most of Asia can still benefit from higher reserves in terms of reduced borrowing costs.
Foreign exchange administration --- Foreign exchange --- Capital movements --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Cambistry --- Currency exchange --- Exchange, Foreign --- Foreign currency --- Foreign exchange problem --- Foreign money --- Forex --- FX (Finance) --- International exchange --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- Currency crises --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Banking --- Sudden stops --- External debt --- Reserves accumulation --- International reserves --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Debts, External --- Taiwan Province of China
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We estimate a vector error correction (VEC) model for Sri Lanka to determine the response of remittance receipts to macroeconomic shocks. This is the first attempt of its kind in the literature. We find that remittance receipts are procyclical and decline when the island's currency weakens, undermining their usefulness as shock absorber. On the other hand, remittances increase in response to oil price shocks, reflecting the fact that most overseas. Sri Lankan are employed in the Gulf states. The procyclicality of remittances calls into question the notion that remittances are largely motivated by altruism.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Remittances --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Outward remittances --- Oil prices --- Inward remittances --- Exchange rates --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- Emigrant remittances --- Migrant remittances --- Sri Lanka
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There has been little systematic empirical study on the relationship between remittances and growth. This paper attempts to examine this relationship. Using a newly constructed crosscountry of data series for remittances covering a large sample of developing countries, we relate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on growth. We analyze how a country's capacity to use remittances and its effectiveness in doing so might be influenced by local financial sector conditions. Given the difficulty of borrowing in developing countries, we explore the hypothesis that remittances can substitute for a lack of financial development and hence promote growth. The empirical analysis shows that remittances can promote growth in less financially developed countries. This relationship controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of sensitivity tests.
Economic development. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Emigrant remittances. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Statistics --- Remittances --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International economics --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Banking --- Financial sector development --- Credit --- Balance of payments statistics --- Commercial banks --- International finance --- Financial services industry --- Balance of payments --- Banks and banking --- China, People's Republic of
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Do Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) suffer from a debt overhang? Is debt relief going to improve their growth rates? To answer these important questions, we look at how the debt-growth relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a panel of developing countries. Our findings suggest that there is a negative marginal relationship between debt and growth at intermediate levels of debt, but not at very low debt levels, below the “debt overhang” threshold, or at very high levels, above the “debt irrelevance” threshold. Countries with good policies and institutions face overhang when debt rises above 15-30 percent of GDP, but the marginal effect of debt on growth becomes irrelevant above 70-80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, overhang and irrelevance thresholds seem to be lower, but we cannot rule out the possibility that debt does not matter at all.
Debt relief -- Developing countries. --- Debts, External -- Developing countries. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Finance --- Debt burden --- Debt relief --- Debt service --- Debt default --- External debt --- Debts, External --- United States
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This paper creates the first dataset of bilateral remittance flows for a limited set of developing countries and estimates a gravity model for workers' remittances. We find that most of the variation in bilateral remittance flows can be explained by a few gravity variables. The evidence on the motives to remit is mixed, but altruism may be less of a factor than commonly believed. Most strikingly, remittances do not seem to increase in the wake of a natural disaster and appear aligned with the business cycle in the home country, suggesting that remittances may not play a major role in limiting vulnerability to shocks. To encourage remittances and maximize their economic impact, policies should be directed at reducing transaction costs, promoting financial sector development, and improving the business climate.
Emigrant remittances --- Capital movements --- Econometric models. --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Immigrant remittances --- Remittances, Emigrant --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Natural Disasters --- Remittances --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- International economics --- Currency --- Natural disasters --- Multiple currency practices --- Current account --- Outward remittances --- Bangladesh
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We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6 percent of GDP but costs can be as high as 40 percent for major financial sector bailouts. Contingent liability realizations are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of growth reversals and crises, accentuating pressure on the budget during already difficult times. Countries with stronger institutions are able to better control and address the underlying risks so that they are less exposed to contingent liability realizations.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Fiscal Policy --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial Crises --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Contingent liabilities --- Financial sector --- Public debt --- Fiscal risks --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Economic sectors --- Financial crises --- Fiscal policy --- Financial services industry --- Debts, Public --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Brazil
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