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This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial conditions in five principal determinants, based on 32 indicators. The Dominican Republic’s growth distribution appears most vulnerable to negative shocks to domestic financial conditions, domestic leverage, domestic demand, and external demand, with additional repercussions from the external cost of borrowing in the longer run. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy plays a particularly important role in reducing growth vulnerabilities when the economy is weak.

Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Monetary Growth Models --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Credit --- Liquidity --- Macrofinancial linkages --- Growth-at-risk assessment --- Money --- Asset and liability management --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Financial risk management --- Dominican Republic

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We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) events in the United States on asset price risk using risk-neutral density functions estimated from options prices. Based on an event study including a key exchange rate, an equity index, and five commodities, we find that “tail risk” diminishes in the immediate aftermath of UMP events, particularly downside left tail risk. We also find that QE1 and QE3 had stronger effects than QE2. We conclude that UMP events that serve to ease policies can help to bolster market confidence in times of high uncertainty.

Monetary policy. --- Asset-liability management. --- Asset-liability management (Banking) --- Funds management --- Financial institutions --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Management --- Investments --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Futures --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Investments: Options --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Contingent Pricing --- Futures Pricing --- option pricing --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Commodity Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Asset prices --- Unconventional monetary policies --- Commodity prices --- Futures --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Options --- Derivative securities --- United States --- Option pricing

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Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti.

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Despite some improvement since 2011, Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lag behind other regions in terms of financial inclusion. There is no clear evidence that fintech developments have supported greater financial inclusion in LAC, contrary to what has been observed elsewhere in the world. Case studies by national policy experts suggest that barriers to entry in the financial sector, along with a constraining regulatory environment, may have hindered a faster adoption of fintech. However, fintech development seems to have accelerated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and with the support of recent policy initiatives.

Mexico --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Finance --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Financial inclusion --- Financial markets --- Fintech --- Technology --- Financial services --- Financial sector --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations