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Money demand is critical for defining monetary policy options and is not driven necessarily by developed country standards of transaction demand, speculation motive, and opportunity costs grounded by fully functioning financial markets. However, market imperfections in less developed economies can also play a critical role in the dynamics of demand for money. This paper estimates a vector equilibrium correction model to investigate the nature of short-term and long-term interactions for money demand in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The paper concludes that real money demand in Egypt during (1958-2013) is stable and can be considered confidently by monetary authorities to adjust for long-term growth in the real economy. The rate of devaluation of the official exchange rate and inflation have a serious effect on the public's trust in the national currency in the long term. Money is not neutral for long-term portfolio decisions, because of the increase in real income in the economy that couples with an uptrend in monetization as the ratio of money stock over output also uptrends. The paper also provides quantitative evidence that the devaluation within the parallel market is negatively related to the change in demand for real money balances in the short term. Economic agents hold more domestic currency if the official exchange rate slides, and arbitrage opportunities are sought in the parallel market.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic Reform Policies --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Model Evaluation --- Money Demand --- Private Sector Development --- Selection --- Time-Series Models --- Validation
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This paper estimates private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. In addition, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several Western countries and Japan. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and developed countries. Over 1964-2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with real gross domestic product growth. They only explain a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil exporters and oil importers.
Access to Finance --- Business Cycle --- Credit Cycle --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Private Finance --- Rural Finance
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Recent economic and political developments have highlighted a challenge shared across the Arab region of generating employment, promoting inclusive growth, and improving competitiveness. In the short run, weakened macroeconomic fundamentals in the developing economies of the Middle East and North Africa are a key challenge. The region's main challenge is to achieve sustainable growth that delivers the quantity and quality of jobs needed. An inclusive and competitive private sector has proven to be one of the most effective and long-term solutions for this challenge. This paper provides an analytical framework to diagnose and identify key challenges to the growth of small and medium enterprises that is supported by a quantitative model based on the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys database. The findings reconfirm that the route to a sustained role for small and medium enterprises in job creation requires improving the credibility of reforms, the effectiveness of policies, and equitable enforcement. Although one size fits all is infeasible for Arab countries, it is important to design policies across sectors to create productive employment and promote economic growth. Supporting innovation and enhancing access to finance are central to the development agenda for small and medium enterprises. And creating an enabling environment and setting up accountable institutions are key to ensure equal opportunity and inclusive growth.
Access to Finance --- Arab World --- Economic Growth --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Gender Equality --- Investment Climate --- Job Creation --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Logistic Regression --- Private Sector Development
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The paper uses a detailed household survey to document precautionary wealth accumulation in Afghanistan, with wealth being significantly higher for households facing higher income uncertainty. Annual household expenditure on nondurable goods is also lower for these households. There is no significant difference in the wealth response to income uncertainty across high- and low-conflict provinces. However, the constituents of precautionary wealth vary drastically. While households in the low-conflict regions rely almost exclusively on livestock to iron out uncertainty, households in the high-conflict areas also build up a reserve of gold and silver. This shift in household portfolio suggests a more substantial decline in real returns of livestock relative to jewelry in high-conflict provinces.
Conflict --- Conflict and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- ICT Economics --- Jewelry --- Livestock --- Livestock and Animal Husbandry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mining and Extractive Industry(Non-Energy) --- Poverty Reduction --- Precautionary Wealth --- Primary Metals --- Uncertainty --- Urban Governance and Management --- Urban Housing --- Urban Housing and Land Settlements
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This paper discusses the evolution of the Egyptian banking sector and the main trends in financial development in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The paper examines empirically the relationship between the development of the financial sector and economic growth in Egypt between 1980 and 2016. It draws comparisons based on critical financial indicators between Egypt and selected emerging markets and developing economies, using a new data set of financial development indexes released by the International Monetary Fund. Econometric time-series modeling of bivariate regressions for real growth per capita and measures of financial development, to assess the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt, yields three specific findings. First; there is a strong association between real growth per capita and financial development measured. Second; access to and the efficiency of banking services are not associated with real per capita income. Third, the Financial Markets Access Index'which compiles data on market capitalization outside the top 10 largest companies and the number of corporate issuers of debt'indicates that there is a robust association with real per capita gross domestic product. The main policy implications suggest that there should be a stronger focus on promoting a more proactive role for the financial services industry in Egypt. There is an especially critical role for bank financing to support the private sector to maintain an inclusive growth momentum. Further development of the capital market will promote the sustainability of such economic growth.
Access to Finance --- Autoregression Distributed Lag Model --- Banking --- Capital Markets and Capital Flows --- Economic Growth --- Emerging Market Economies --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Development --- Financial Economics --- Financial Markets Access Index --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Time Series Model
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The paper makes two main contributions. First, it analyzes net foreign assets and liabilities in selected Arab countries over the past two decades, emphasizing the relative significance of direct versus portfolio investment. It distinguishes between foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, official reserves, and external debt. Second, the paper examines the effects of policy variables that affect the accumulation of net foreign assets and its components, analyzing how the existence of a sovereign wealth fund, the country's exchange rate regime, and the development of its financial system affect its net foreign assets. The main findings show that the presence of a sovereign wealth fund is positively and statistically significantly associated with foreign direct investment in Arab countries. Financial development (defined as credit to the private sector as a percentage of gross domestic product) is also statistically significant across various regressions. The more financially developed a country is, the more it should invest in riskier assets, such as portfolio assets. But Arab investors are more risk averse than investors elsewhere. Oil-exporting countries tend to invest more in debt assets than in portfolio assets. For oil-importing countries, financial development is the most important determinant of foreign direct investment.
Access to Finance --- Arab Economies --- Capital Markets and Capital Flows --- Debt Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Development --- Foreign Direct Investment --- International Economics and Trade --- Net Foreign Assets --- Official Reserves --- Oil-Exporting Country --- Portfolio Investment --- Sovereign Wealth Funds
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This paper investigates the state of low investment in Afghanistan by studying how investment decisions interact with risks and uncertainty in the presence of underdeveloped financial markets. The analysis shows that investing firms experience a higher probability of being affected by events related to crime and corruption and spend more on security arrangements. Firms that participate in the formal financial sector are also subject to higher levels of risk and uncertainty. As more productive firms face higher risks and uncertainty, a model of resource allocation with heterogeneous firms is used to quantify the economic loss from crime and corruption. The estimated aggregate output loss of 12 percent is significantly higher than the 7 percent loss observed in the absence of the resource allocation channel.
Access to Finance --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Common Carriers Industry --- Construction Industry --- Crime and Society --- Education --- Educational Sciences --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Frictions --- Food and Beverage Industry --- General Manufacturing --- Industry --- Investment Decisions --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Plastics and Rubber Industry --- Pulp and Paper Industry --- Risks --- Social Development --- Textiles Apparel and Leather Industry --- Uncertainty
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Households accumulate wealth as a reserve against unexpected contingencies. We employ a detailed household survey in Afghanistan to study how non-housing wealth accumulation of households varies with labor income uncertainty. We find that households facing higher income uncertainty accumulate significantly larger quantities of non-housing wealth. Exploiting variation in availability of banks and micro-finance institutions across provinces, we find lower wealth accumulation in provinces having better access to financial institutions.
Access to Finance --- Conflict and Development --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Livestock --- Uncertainty
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This paper focuses on developments in the European Economic and Monetary Union sovereign debt markets in the past decade. The first part analyzes the integration and segmentation structure of the bond markets of the Economic and Monetary Union b
European Economic And Monetary Union --- Monetary Policy --- Network Analysis --- Sovereign Debt --- Tapering
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Private savings play a pivotal role in financing development and sustaining growth. Recently, there have been many theoretical developments that underpin key determinants of savings behavior, many of which merit empirical investigation. Understanding the dynamics of the determinants of savings is crucial to inform economic policy and devise reform programs. This paper builds on earlier work examining the stability of the long-run relationship between the real interest rate, financial saving, and total saving during 1960 to 1990. The paper extends the scope of the empirical investigation of the determinants of private savings behavior in the Arab Republic of Egypt, and considers the effect of financial development. The analysis uses quarterly data covering 1991-2010, adopting a vector error correction model. The key findings attest that private savings in Egypt follow the Life Cycle Model in the long term. Controlling for population growth, the analysis finds that the real interest rate and financial development are key determinates for real private savings in the long run. The negative long-run relation between the real interest rate and private savings holds under the proposed model structure as well as for that in the earlier work. However, in the short run, inflation and exchange rate movements are key determinants for private savings decisions. Robust economic policies, inclusive of macroeconomic and monetary measures, are prerequisites for maximizing private savings and financing growth in Egypt.
Life Cycle Model --- Permanent Income Hypothesis --- Savings --- Time-Series Models --- Uncertainty
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