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Economic conditions. Economic development --- Asia

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Like most petroleum producing countries, Indonesia experienced a sharp deterioration in its export conditions during the early 1980s. Given the country's heavy reliance on oil taxation and relatively low per capita income, this exogenous shock seriously disrupted development plans and induced extensive structural adjustments in the economy. Indonesia has taken greater initiative than some to stabilize its economy and reduce the distortionary threat of expansionist policies inherited from the oil boom. Its success in this regard was due to an eventual willingness to implement voluntary stabilization and relatively favorable credit rating. In this study, a calibrated intertemporal general equilibrium model is used to evaluate the Indonesian adjustment policy of the period 1980-86 with particular attention to the growth and distributional implications of adjustment. The findings of this report indicate that more efficacious policies could have been implemented. These policies would ...

Development --- Indonesia

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This paper reports on the construction of an Input-Output table for the economy of Morocco. The table is calibrated to the year 1990 and details the interactions between 133 primary, manufacturing, and service sectors, relying on a combination of a more aggregate table estimated by the Moroccan government and detailed data from official sources. This table will form the core of a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM) currently under construction as part of the same work programme. Ultimately, the SAM will be incorporated into a general equilibrium model, to be used cooperatively by the Development Centre, the Moroccan government, and the World Bank for trade and resource policy analysis. This report describes in detail the construction of the Input-Output table, presents the table in its entirety, and provides some preliminary multiplier estimates elucidating the links between Moroccan agriculture and the rest of the economy ...

Development --- Morocco

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Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to 14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

Economic Theory and Research --- Incidence of Poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor areas --- Poor households --- Poor people --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting

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Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to 14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

Economic Theory and Research --- Incidence of Poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor areas --- Poor households --- Poor people --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting