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During Vietnam's two decades of rapid economic growth, its fertility rate has fallen sharply at the same time that its educational attainment has risen rapidly-macro trends that are consistent with the hypothesis of a quantity-quality tradeoff in child-rearing. This paper investigates whether the micro-level evidence supports the hypothesis that Vietnamese parents are in fact making a tradeoff between quantity and quality of children. The paper presents new measures of household investment in private tutoring, together with traditional measures of household investments in education. It analyzes data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys and instruments for family size using the distance to the nearest family planning center. The estimation results show that families do indeed invest less in the education of school-age children who have larger numbers of siblings. This effect holds for several indicators of educational investment-including general education expenditure and various measures of private tutoring investment-and is robust to various definitions of family size and model specifications that control for community characteristics as well as the distance to the city center. Finally, the results suggest that tutoring may be a better measure of quality-oriented household investments in education than traditional measures like enrollment, which are arguably less nuanced and household-driven.

Education finance --- Family size --- Fertility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Private schooling --- Quantity-quality tradeoff --- Tutoring --- Vietnam

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The global financial crisis has already led to sharp downturns in the developing world. In the past, international aid has been able to offset partially the effects of crises that began in the developing world, but because this crisis began in the wealthy countries, donors may be less willing or able to increase aid in this crisis. Not only have donor-country incomes fallen, but the cause of the drop - the banking and financial-sector crisis - may exacerbate the effect on aid flows because of its heavy fiscal costs. This paper estimates how donor-country banking crises have affected aid flows in the past, using panel data from 24 donor countries between 1977 and 2007. The analysis finds that banking crises in donor countries are associated with a substantial additional fall in aid flows, beyond any income-related effects, perhaps because of the high fiscal costs of crisis and the debt hangover in the post-crisis periods. In most specifications, aid flows from crisis-affected countries fall by an average of 20 to 25 percent (relative to the counterfactual) and bottom out only about a decade after the banking crisis hits. In addition, the results confirm that donor-country incomes are robustly related to per-capita aid flows, with an elasticity of about 3. Because all donor countries are being hit hard by the current global recession, and several have also suffered banking-sector crises, there are reasons to expect that aid could fall by a significant amount (again, relative to the counterfactual) in the coming years - just when aid may be most clearly justified to help smooth exogenous shocks to developing countries.

Banks & Banking Reform --- Capita income --- Debt Markets --- Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness --- Domestic needs --- Economic conditions --- Economic Conditions and Volatility --- Economic downturns --- Economic outlook --- Economic uncertainty --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial conditions --- Financial crises --- Financial volatility --- Income --- Income levels --- Inflation --- International country risk guide --- International monetary fund --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market volatility --- Per capita income --- Social Protections and Labor --- Standard errors --- Systemic banking crises --- Transition economies

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Using all the household survey data available in Latin America during the period 1992 to 2013, this paper estimates that in 2015, 20 million youth ages 15 to 24 years in the region were out of school and not working (making them ninis, for "ni estudian ni trabajan"). The share of out-of-school, out-of-work youth in Latin America, at about 19 percent, is roughly equal to the global average of 22 percent. Although women make up over two-thirds of the ninis in the region, the number of male ninis grew by 46 percent between 1992 and 2010. As a result, the absolute number of ninis rose over the two-decade period, even as women's education and employment rates were improving. Global comparisons show that Latin America is the region of the world with the largest concentration of ninis among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. Coupled with the long-lasting harm it causes to the youth's future labor-market outcomes, the high incidence of ninis among the poorest households tends to lock in income disparities from one generation to the next, obstructing social mobility and poverty reduction in the region.

Adolescent Health --- Communities & Human Settlements --- Dropouts --- Education --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Ninis --- Population Policies --- Primary Education --- Youth Unemployment

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The standard summary metric of education-based human capital used in macro analyses-the average number of years of schooling in a population-is based only on quantity. But ignoring schooling quality turns out to be a major omission. As recent research shows, students in different countries who have completed the same number of years of school often have vastly different learning outcomes. This paper therefore proposes a new summary measure, Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS), that combines quantity and quality of schooling into a single easy-to-understand metric of progress. The cross-country comparisons produced by this measure are robust to different ways of adjusting for learning (for example, by using different international assessments or different summary learning indicators), and the assumptions and implications of LAYS are consistent with other evidence, including other approaches to quality adjustment. The paper argues that (1) LAYS improves on the standard metric, because it is a better predictor of important outcomes, and it improves incentives for policymakers; and (2) its virtues of simplicity and transparency make it a good candidate summary measure of education.

Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Education --- Education For All --- Educational Populations --- Educational Sciences --- Health Care Services Industry --- Human Capital --- Industrial Economics --- Industry --- Learning --- Macroeconomics And Economic Growth --- Returns To Education --- Schooling --- Test Scores

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In October 2019, the World Bank and UNESCO Institute for Statistics proposed a new metric, Learning Poverty, designed to spotlight low levels of learning and track progress toward ensuring that all children acquire foundational skills. This paper provides the technical background for that indicator, and for its main findings-first, that even before COVID-19, 53 percent of all children in low- and middle-income countries could not read with comprehension by age 10, and second, that at pre-COVID-19 trends, the Learning Poverty rate was on track to fall only to 44 percent by 2030, far short of the universal literacy envisioned under the Sustainable Development Goals. The paper contributes to the literature in four ways. First, it formally describes the new synthetic Learning Poverty metric, which combines the dimensions of learning with schooling and thus reflects the learning of all children, and it presents, for the first time, standard errors associated with the proposed measure. Second, it documents how this indicator is calculated at the country, regional, and global levels, and discusses the robustness associated with different aggregation approaches. Third, it documents historical rates of progress and compares them with the rate of progress that would be required for countries to halve Learning Poverty by 2030, as envisioned under the learning target announced by the World Bank in 2019. Fourth, it provides heterogeneity analysis by gender, region, and other variables, and documents learning poverty's strong correlation with metrics of learning for other ages. These results show that the Learning Poverty indicator, together with improved measurement of learning, can be used as an evidence-based tool to promote progress toward all children reading by age 10-a prerequisite for achieving all the ambitious education aspirations included under Sustainable Development Goals 4.

Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Education --- Education For All --- Education Indicators and Statistics --- Effective Schools and Teachers --- Human Capital --- Learning Assessment --- Learning Poverty --- Primary Education --- Schooling --- Sustainable Development Goals