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This paper analyzes the potential risks and vulnerabilities of non-financial corporates in Latin America and Canada. We quantify the impact of company-specific, countryspecific, and global factors in driving corporate spreads. Overall, we found that all these factors play a role in explaining corporate risk. In particular, country specific factors such as exchange rate and sovereign CDS spreads are significantly associated with changes in corporate spreads, underscoring the importance of solid policy frameworks. We also find that global conditions, such as the VIX, are dominant drivers of corporate spreads. In recent years, the adverse effects from deteriorating domestic conditions have been broadly offset by relatively bening global financial conditions. However, a sustained reversal in these conditions would put significant pressure on corporate risk.
Corporations --- Financial risk management --- Prices --- Risk management --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: General --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Commodity Markets --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Credit default swap --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Currencies --- Exchange rates --- Credit --- Brazil
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Easy global liquidity conditions, stronger risk appetite and a retrenchment in cross-border bank lending led to a surge in emerging market firms’ bond issuance in international markets (what we term “The Bon(d)anza”). Using firm-level data for five large Latin American economies, we provide evidence of a significant change in companies’ external funding strategies and liability structures after 2010, as well as in the balance sheet risks that firms face. We find that stepped up bond issuance was mostly aimed at re-financing rather than funding investment projects, as firms extended the average duration of their debt while securing lower fixed-rates, reducing roll-over and interest rate risks. The shift towards safer maturity structures has come at the expense of a leveraging-up in foreign-currency-denominated financial debt in several countries— reversing a de-dollarization trend seen during the last decade. We also provide evidence that a substantial part of these bonds were issued through offshore vehicles, suggesting regulatory and tax arbitrage strategies. For some corporations, rising dollar debt and high leverage will be particularly taxing in an environment of US dollar strengthening, less buoyant commodity prices and slowing domestic activity.
Corporations --- Corporate debt --- Bonds --- Capital market --- Financial risk --- Financial statements --- Balance sheets --- Corporate financial statements --- Earnings statements --- Financial reports --- Income statements --- Operating statements --- Profit and loss statements --- Statements, Financial --- Accounting --- Bookkeeping --- Business records --- Corporation reports --- Business risk (Finance) --- Money risk (Finance) --- Risk --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Bond issues --- Debentures --- Negotiable instruments --- Debts, Public --- Stocks --- Debt --- Debt financing (Corporations) --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Trusts, Industrial --- Finance. --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- International Financial Markets --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Currencies --- Debt service --- Depreciation --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- External debt --- National accounts --- Finance, Public --- Saving and investment --- Brazil
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This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification.
Economic development --- Postwar reconstruction --- Post-conflict reconstruction --- Reconstruction, Postwar --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Foreign Aid --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Estimation --- Economic Development: General --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- International economics --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Terms of trade --- Real interest rates --- Foreign aid --- Human capital --- Estimation techniques --- International trade --- Financial services --- Econometric analysis --- nternational cooperation --- Interest rates --- International relief --- Econometric models --- United States
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We combine state-level fiscal data with household survey data to assess the links between sub-national fiscal policy and income inequality in Brazil over the period 1995-2011. The results indicate that a tighter fiscal stance at the sub-national level is not associated with a deterioration in inequality measures. This finding contrasts with the conclusions of several papers in the burgeoning literature on the effects of fiscal consolidation on inequality using national data for OECD economies. In addition, we find that a tighter stance is typically positively associated with a measure of “shared prosperity”. Hence, our results caution against extrapolating policy implications of the literature focusing on advanced economies to other settings.
Economic development. --- International finance. --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Distribution: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Income inequality --- Fiscal stance --- Expenditure --- Fiscal consolidation --- Fiscal policy --- National accounts --- Income distribution --- Expenditures, Public --- Brazil
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