Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The paper evaluates the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) within the global structure of overlapping regional trade agreements (RTAs) using a modified gravity equation. First, it examines the effects of the Trade Liberalization Program which started in 2006. SAFTA would have a minor effect on regional trade flows and the impact on custom duties would be a manageable fiscal shock for most members. Second, the paper ranks the trade effects of other potential RTAs for individual South Asian countries and SAFTA: RTAs with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) dominate one with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Free trade --- Free trade and protection --- Trade, Free --- Trade liberalization --- International trade --- South Asian Free Trade Area Treaty --- SAFTA --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Economic Integration --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Tariffs --- Trade balance --- Imports --- Trade barriers --- North American Free Trade Agreement --- Taxes --- Tariff --- Balance of trade --- Commercial policy --- Commercial treaties --- Sri Lanka

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.

Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Labor Economics: General --- Commodity Markets --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labour --- income economics --- Oil prices --- Labor --- Commodity prices --- Productivity --- National accounts --- Production --- Saving and investment --- Labor economics --- Industrial productivity --- Colombia --- Income economics

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper suggests a novel approach to assess corporate sector solvency risk. The approach uses a Bottom-Up Default Analysis that projects probabilities of default of individual firms conditional on macroeconomic conditions and financial risk factors. This allows a direct macro-financial link to assessing corporate performance and facilitates what-if scenarios. When extended with credit portfolio techniques, the approach can also assess the aggregate impact of changes in firm solvency risk on creditor banks’ capital buffers under different macroeconomic scenarios. As an illustration, we apply this approach to the corporate sector of the five largest economies in Latin America.

Corporations --- Financial risk management --- Risk management --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate finance --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities) --- Finance --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Corporate Finance --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Commodity Markets --- Banking --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Loans --- Corporate sector --- Commercial banks --- Liquidity indicators --- Financial institutions --- Economic sectors --- Liquidity management --- Asset and liability management --- Commodity prices --- Prices --- Banks and banking --- Business enterprises --- Liquidity --- Economics --- Brazil