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We examine industrial output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania during 1989–95 in terms of pretransitional product trade orientation. The growth of EU-oriented output within sectors of industry, ex-post trade, and market liberalization, is modeled as foreign direct investment induced Schumpeterian (vertical) waves of product innovation. The growth of non-EU-oriented output within sectors is modeled as unobservable deterministic heterogeneity. The results indicate that the gap observed in industrial output performance when comparing Eastern European to former Soviet countries is mainly explained by the inherited presence of EU-oriented production and its unconstrained growth over the transition period.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Factor and Product Markets --- Industry Studies --- Population --- Trade: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Industrial Organization: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Macroeconomics: Production --- International economics --- Finance --- Exports --- Foreign direct investment --- Industrial sector --- Trade liberalization --- Production growth --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Economic sectors --- Production --- Investments, Foreign --- Industries --- Commercial policy --- Economic theory --- Bulgaria

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