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Quantitative social scientists use survival analysis to understand the forces that determine the duration of events. This Element provides a guideline to new techniques and models in survival analysis, particularly in three areas: non-proportional covariate effects, competing risks, and multi-state models. It also revisits models for repeated events. The Element promotes multi-state models as a unified framework for survival analysis and highlights the role of general transition probabilities as key quantities of interest that complement traditional hazard analysis. These quantities focus on the long term probabilities that units will occupy particular states conditional on their current state, and they are central in the design and implementation of policy interventions.

Event history analysis. --- Social sciences --- Methodology. --- History --- Methodology

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Science politique --- Méthodologie.

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Foreign ministers are prominent actors in foreign affairs, often second only to heads of government in their influence. Yet, despite the growing awareness of the importance of key actors, and their backgrounds, in the study of international relations, foreign ministers remain understudied. In this Element, we make an important empirical contribution by presenting an original dataset on the personal and professional background of foreign ministers, spanning thirteen countries and more than 200 years. We use these data to answer three questions: who are the foreign ministers, why are foreign ministers with particular features appointed, and why do some foreign ministers have longer tenure than others? We find that foreign ministers tend to be men of politics who are appointed both on the basis of their affinity to, and to complement the experiences of, the head of government. We also find that foreign ministers stay longer in office when they perform well or are expected to do so, but that they are more likely to lose their posts when conditions make heads of government more prone to 'pin blame' on them to deflect criticism from foreign policy failures.

Diplomatic and consular service --- Recruiting.