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National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Food prices --- Exchange rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Real exchange rates --- Agricultural production --- Production --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Agricultural industries --- Rwanda --- Quarterly review. --- Banks and Banking. --- Inflation. --- Macroeconomics. --- Agribusiness. --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation. --- Monetary Policy. --- Quantitative Policy Modeling. --- Price Level. --- Deflation. --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis. --- Prices. --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects. --- Macroeconomics: Production. --- Currency. --- Foreign exchange. --- Banking. --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries. --- Food prices. --- Exchange rates. --- Central bank policy rate. --- Real exchange rates. --- Agricultural production. --- Production. --- Financial services. --- Interest rates. --- Agricultural industries. --- National Bank of Rwanda --- History. --- Rwanda.

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Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Belarus --- Republic of Belarus --- Rėspublika Belarusʹ --- Republic of Byelarusʹ --- Respublika Byelarusʹ --- Byelarus --- République de Bélarus --- República de Belarús --- Republik Belarus --- Weissrussland --- White Russia --- Belorussia --- Belorus --- Biélorussie --- Bielorussia --- Białoruś --- Беларусь --- Рэспубліка Беларусь --- Республика Беларусь --- ベラルーシ --- Berarūshi --- Byelorussian S.S.R. --- Economic conditions --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Demand for Money --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Inflation targeting --- Output gap --- Demand for money --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Production --- Money --- Economic theory --- Belarus, Republic of

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Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus.

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This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

Latvia --- Economic policy --- Economic conditions --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking, Central --- Capital market --- Central bank policy rate --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Central banks --- Currency --- Deflation --- Development economics & emerging economies --- Economic forecasting --- Economic theory --- Exchange rates --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial services --- Forecasting --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Inflation --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International institutions --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Market interest rates --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Output gap --- Political economy --- Price Level --- Prices --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Canada