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Book
Financial Market Implications of India’s Pension Reform
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ISBN: 1462311431 1452765251 1283512513 1451911025 9786613824967 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

India's planned pension reform will set up a proper regulatory framework for the pension industry and open up the sector to private fund managers. Drawing on international experiences, the paper highlights pre-conditions for the reform to kick-start financial development, including: (i) the buildup of critical mass; (ii) sufficiently flexible investment guidelines and regulations, including on investments abroad; and (iii) concurrent reforms in capital markets. Given the limited scale of the planned reform, the key challenge for India is to achieve sufficient critical mass early on. Options to address this challenge include granting permission for existing workers to switch to the new system or outsourcing all or part of the reserves of private sector provident funds to the new pension fund managers.


Book
Factor Reallocation and Growth in Developing Countries
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ISBN: 1462303544 1451992483 1281347728 9786613779366 145189757X Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the extent to which developing countries benefit from intersectoral factor transfers by specifying the impact and determinants of sectoral changes and of the degree of dualism (or allocation inefficiency) in a dual economy model. Conditions under which factor reallocation is growth-enhancing are derived. An empirical error-correction equation is estimated for 30 developing countries during 1965-80. Results suggest that labor reallocation effects are especially important in countries with high rates of investment (and thus high rates of labor transfer) and/or at low levels of development (and thus high degrees of dualism).


Book
Economic Security, Private Investment, and Growth in Developing Countries
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ISBN: 1462354149 1452722064 1281603260 1451890338 9786613783950 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides empirical support for the view that enhanced economic security fosters private investment and growth in developing countries. An analysis for 53 developing countries suggests that most aspects of economic security have improved since the mid-1980s; that private investment is mostly influenced by the risk of expropriation, the degree of civil liberty, and the degree of independence of the bureaucracy; and that economic growth is affected by the risk of expropriation and political terrorism in the short run, and by corruption and contract repudiation in the long run.


Book
The Impact of Intersectoral Labor Reallocationon Economic Growth
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ISBN: 1462322697 1452711895 1281215821 9786613777720 1451898371 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This study seeks to explain economic growth differences in an aggregate production function framework, where labor reallocation from agriculture to modern sectors influences labor efficiency growth. The econometric analysis uses a panel of 65 countries over 1960-90. The results highlight: (a) the differences in labor reallocation impact on growth, controlled for using the intersectoral wedge in labor productivities; (b) the significance of labor reallocation effects, even after controlling for capital accumulation, initial conditions, and country effects; (c) the role of slow labor reallocation in explaining the dummy variable for Sub-Saharan Africa; (d) the role of initial education levels in explaining differences in labor reallocation rates.


Book
How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?
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ISBN: 1462334903 1452755329 1281961582 1451893736 9786613793775 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate), adequacy of reserves, dollarization (currency substitution), exchange rate risk exposure, and some traditional optimal currency area criteria, in particular capital mobility, on exchange rate regime selection.


Book
The Tax System in India : Could Reform Spur Growth?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451863535 1462319548 1451991290 9786613828330 1451998449 1283515881 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of India's tax system on growth, through the level and productivity of private investment. Comparison of India's indicators of effective tax rates and tax revenue productivity with other countries shows that the Indian tax system is characterized by: (1) a high dependence on indirect taxes, (2) low average effective tax rates and tax productivity, and (3) high marginal effective tax rates and large tax-induced distortions on investment and financing decisions. The paper finds that the most recently proposed package of reforms would improve tax productivity and lower the marginal tax burden and tax-induced distortions. But firms that rely on internal sources of funds or face problems borrowing would continue to face high marginal tax rates.


Book
Risk Exposures and Financial Spillovers in Tranquil and Crisis Times : Bank-Level Evidence
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1484383370 1484308506 1484329902 Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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For a sample of 83 financial institutions during 2003–2011, this paper attempts to answer three questions: first, what is the evolution of banks’ stock price exposure to country-level and global risk factors as approximated by equity indices; second, which bank-specific characteristics explain these risk exposures; third, are there clusters of banks with equity price linkages beyond market risk factors. The paper finds a rise in sensitivities to both country and global risk factors in 2011, although on average to levels still below those of the subprime crisis. The average sensitivity to European risk, specifically, has been steadily rising since 2008. Banks that are reliant on wholesale funding, have weaker capital levels and low valuations, and higher exposures to crisis countries are found to be the most vulnerable to shocks. The analysis of bank-to-bank linkages suggests that any “globalization” of the euro area crisis is likely to be channelled through U.K. and U.S. banks, with little evidence of direct spillover effects to other regions.


Book
Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization : The Case of India
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1451914431 1462392121 9786612840838 1282840835 1451869908 1452777330 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/131 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.


Book
External Debt and Growth
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462370179 145271293X 1281311324 1451895607 9786613778512 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.


Book
What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462398529 1451997590 1281090077 1451891288 9786613775436 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the channels through which debt affects growth, specifically whether debt affects growth through factor accumulation or total factor productivity growth. It also tests for the presence of nonlinearities in the effects of debt on the different sources of growth. We use a large panel dataset of 61 developing countries over the period 1969-98. Results indicate that the negative impact of high debt on growth operates both through a strong negative effect on physical capital accumulation and on total factor productivity growth. On average, for high-debt countries, doubling debt will reduce output growth by about 1 percentage point and reduce both per capita physical capital and total factor productivity growth by somewhat less than that. In terms of the contributions to growth, approximately one-third of the effect of debt on growth occurs via physical capital accumulation and two-thirds via total factor productivity growth. The results are generally robust to the use of alternative estimators to control (to different extents) for biases associated with unobserved country-specific effects and the endogeneity of several regressors, particularly the debt variables. In particular, the results are shown to be compatible with a simultaneous significant effect of growth on debt ratios, as suggested by Easterly (2001).

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