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Chile’s small open economy with significant mismatch between the production and consumption baskets may be represented by three stylized sectors, a commodity sector, a non-commodity tradable sector, and a non-tradable sector. This paper estimates the effect of copper price shocks on mining, manufacturing, and construction—each embodying a sector type. The empirical findings are for positive spillovers from mining to the other two sectors. However, the estimated size of the spillovers seems modest, which raises the question of the potential for mining to be better integrated with the rest of the economy.
Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Natural Resource Extraction --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Externalities --- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity --- Extractive industries --- Manufacturing industries --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Metal prices --- Mining sector --- Manufacturing --- Real effective exchange rates --- Positive spillovers --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Metals --- Mineral industries --- International finance --- Chile
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This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
Inflation (Finance) --- Depreciation --- Capital depreciation --- Obsolescence (Accounting) --- Accounting --- Bookkeeping --- Corporation reserves --- Reserves (Accounting) --- Economic life of fixed assets --- Capacity --- Capital --- Consumer price indexes --- Deflation --- Economic theory --- Import prices --- Imports --- Inflation --- Intangible Capital --- Investment --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- National accounts --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Output gap --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Prices --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Saving and investment --- Chile
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This paper investigates the asymmetries in trade spillovers from sector-specific technology shocks in China to selected euro area countries. We use a Ricardian-gravity trade model to estimate sectoral competitiveness in individual euro area countries. Simulations on the impact of productivity shocks in Chinese textiles and machinery suggest that the required adjustment in wages, prices, and factor re-allocation is widely heterogenous across euro area countries on accounts of their different specialization patterns. This raises the question of the distribution of gains and losses from external trade shocks.
Commerce --- Business & Economics --- Local Commerce --- International trade. --- European Economic Community countries --- China --- Commerce. --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Common market countries --- European common market countries --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- Europe --- European Union countries --- Econometric models. --- E-books --- EU countries --- Euroland --- Cina --- Kinë --- Cathay --- Chinese National Government --- Chung-kuo kuo min cheng fu --- Republic of China (1912-1949) --- Kuo min cheng fu (China : 1912-1949) --- Chung-hua min kuo (1912-1949) --- Kina (China) --- National Government (1912-1949) --- China (Republic : 1912-1949) --- People's Republic of China --- Chinese People's Republic --- Chung-hua jen min kung ho kuo --- Central People's Government of Communist China --- Chung yang jen min cheng fu --- Chung-hua chung yang jen min kung ho kuo --- Central Government of the People's Republic of China --- Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo --- Zhong hua ren min gong he guo --- Kitaĭskai︠a︡ Narodnai︠a︡ Respublika --- Činská lidová republika --- RRT --- Republik Rakjat Tiongkok --- KNR --- Kytaĭsʹka Narodna Respublika --- Jumhūriyat al-Ṣīn al-Shaʻbīyah --- RRC --- Kitaĭ --- Kínai Népköztársaság --- Chūka Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- Erets Sin --- Sin --- Sāthāranarat Prachāchon Čhīn --- P.R. China --- PR China --- Chung-kuo --- Zhongguo --- Zhonghuaminguo (1912-1949) --- Zhong guo --- Chine --- République Populaire de Chine --- República Popular China --- Catay --- VR China --- VRChina --- 中國 --- 中国 --- 中华人民共和国 --- Jhongguó --- Bu̇gu̇de Nayiramdaxu Dundadu Arad Ulus --- Bu̇gu̇de Nayiramdaqu Dumdadu Arad Ulus --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Dundad Ard Uls --- Khi︠a︡tad --- Kitad --- Dumdadu Ulus --- Dumdad Uls --- Думдад Улс --- Kitajska --- China (Republic : 1949- ) --- PRC --- P.R.C. --- BNKhAU --- БНХАУ --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Trade: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Technology --- general issues --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Wages --- Trade deficits --- Exports --- Competition --- International trade --- Financial markets --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of --- General issues --- Income economics
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Raising living standards continues to be the main challenge facing Guatemala, as a matter of economic success and social cohesion. This paper discusses the spending, financing, and delivery capacity aspects of a viable development strategy for Guatemala couched within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda. Overall, Guatemala faces additional spending of about 8½ percent of GDP in 2030 to attain health, education, and roads, water, and sanitation infrastructure SDGs. While substantial, these cost estimates are commensurate with a well-defined financing strategy encompassing continuing tax administration efforts, broad-based tax reform, scaled-up private sector participation, and greater spending efficiency. Improving delivery capacities is also essential to secure access of those public goods to all Guatemalans, irrespective of their place of residence, ethnic group, or ability to pay.
Sustainable development --- Development, Sustainable --- Ecologically sustainable development --- Economic development, Sustainable --- Economic sustainability --- ESD (Ecologically sustainable development) --- Smart growth --- Sustainable economic development --- Economic development --- Environmental aspects --- Infrastructure --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Sustainable Development --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- International Fiscal Issues --- International Public Goods --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Education and Economic Development --- Railroads and Other Surface Transportation --- Electric Utilities --- Gas Utilities --- Pipelines --- Water Utilities --- Foreign Aid --- Education: General --- Health: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Demographic Economics: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Education --- Health economics --- Macroeconomics --- Population & demography --- Public finance & taxation --- Health --- Population and demographics --- Public expenditure review --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Saving and investment --- Population --- Expenditures, Public --- Guatemala
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The paper presents a simple supply side, general equilibrium model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of labor tax cuts. The model assumes that output is produced using capital, unskilled and skilled workers, and public servants. Wage formation for skilled workers features a Blanchflower-Oswald wage curve, while the labor supply for unskilled workers is very elastic around the minimum wage for small changes in employment. The model is calibrated for France and used to estimate the output and employment effects induced by two recent tax reforms: the Crédit d’Impôt pour la Compétitivité et l’Emploi (CICE) and the Pacte de Solidarité Responsabilité (RSP). We find that the tax cuts, if not offset by other fiscal measures, would contribute overall to creating around 200,000 jobs in the short run (600,000 jobs in the long run). Since the model abstracts from demand side effects, the results should be interpreted as providing estimates of the effect of tax measures on potential output and potential employment.
Minimum wage --- Social security taxes --- Labor market --- Payroll tax (Social security) --- Social security --- Taxation --- Wages --- Withholding tax --- Minimum wages --- Living wage movement --- Labor --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Labour --- income economics --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Labor costs --- Public employment --- Labor taxes --- Taxes --- Economic theory --- Income tax --- France --- Income economics
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The need to revive Euro area growth highlights the importance of the evolution of domestic and external demand in the core. This paper puts recent demand patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium into historical perspective. We find that, first, dynamics for private consumption, non-residential business investment, and exports since 2008 is dominated by conventional determinants, with no discernible structural break as a result of the crisis. Second, although country-specific factors matter in some cases, demand patterns in these countries are largely driven by common determinants. Third, developments in common fundamentals tend to dominate demand dynamics, coupled, in a few cases, with structurally different elasticities across countries. Fourth, short-term analysis suggests a role for confidence and uncertainty factors in explaining temporary deviations of these variables from long-term fundamentals.
Consumption (Economics) --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- European Union countries --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Disposable income --- Consumption --- Income --- Private consumption --- Exports --- National accounts --- International trade --- Economics --- National income --- France
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This paper explores the impact of fiscal and labor market policies on efficiency, inequality, and fiscal outcomes in France. We extend the general equilibrium model calibrated for France by Alla and others (2015), with measures of labor and capital income for different groups in the economy (the unemployed, unskilled workers, skilled workers, public servants). For each of these groups we combine data on the income distribution with the outcomes of policy simulations to assess the impact of a suite of stylized policies on output, the fiscal balance, the Gini coefficient, and the shape of the Lorenz curve. We find that most types of fiscal expansions, while adding to the deficit and debt in the near term, generally reduce inequality, the main exception being capital income tax cuts. A reduction of the minimum wage has an ambiguous impact on the income distribution: the Gini coefficient increases, but the lowest income quintile improves its relative position in the income distribution thanks to positive employment effects. The paper also finds scope for “win-win” policy packages that could improve overall efficiency, inequality, and fiscal outcomes, for instance if targeted labor tax reductions are offset by cuts in the public wage bill.
Fiscal policy --- Manpower policy --- Employment policy --- Human resource development --- Labor market --- Labor market policy --- Manpower utilization --- Labor policy --- Labor supply --- Trade adjustment assistance --- Finance. --- Government policy --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Factor Income Distribution --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Labour --- income economics --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Income inequality --- Income distribution --- Labor taxes --- Minimum wages --- National accounts --- Taxes --- Income tax --- Minimum wage --- France --- Income economics
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A strand of research documents Chile’s copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices’ sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rekindled the debate on Chile’s adjustment capacity to external shocks. Following Malz (2014), this paper builds a time-varying measure of copper price uncertainty using options contracts. VAR analysis shows that the investment response to an uncertainty shock of average magnitude in the sample is strong and persistent: the cumulative fall in investment from trend at a one-year horizon ranges 2–5.8 percentage points; and it takes between 1½ and 2 years for investment to return to its trend level. Empirical ranges depend on alternative definitions for investment, uncertainty, and options’ maturing time.
Copper --- Prices --- Native element minerals --- Transition metals --- Investments: Metals --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Options --- Macroeconomics --- Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Metal prices --- Asset prices --- Exchange rates --- Options --- Financial institutions --- Commodities --- Metals --- Derivative securities --- Chile --- Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models
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The EU Services Directive was adopted in 2006 to foster competition in services across Europe. However, progress in liberalizing services has fallen short of expectations due to the article 15 of the Directive, which allows countries to maintain pre-existing restrictions if judged necessary to protect the public interest. Through input output analysis, this paper finds important multiplier effects of greater efficiency services to the rest of the economy. A renewed impulse to the liberalization process could be given by enhancing the advocacy role of national competition authorities in interpreting the notion of public interest underpinning existing regulations.
Commercial policy. --- Economic development. --- International finance. --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Foreign trade policy --- International trade --- International trade policy --- Trade policy --- Government policy --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Service --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labour --- income economics --- Competition --- Productivity --- Labor --- Services sector --- Total factor productivity --- Financial markets --- Economic sectors --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Service industries --- France --- Income economics
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This paper develops comparable financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the six large and most financially-integrated Latin American economies (LA6) by following Korobilis (2013) and Koop and Korobilis (2014). The main findings are as follows. First, the estimated FCIs are influenced by a commodity cycle, a global financial cycle, as well as country-specific episodes of financial distress. Second, by early 2017, financial conditions remained favorable in most LA6 economies relative to historical standards. Third, the impact of financial shocks on economic activity widely varies across LA6 and is otherwise found to be stronger in periods of financial stress. Fourth, exposure to regional financial spillovers also differs across LA6.
Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Externalities --- Financial Crises --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Credit --- Loans --- Spillovers --- Financial crises --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International finance --- Argentina
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