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This paper uses a DSGE model to simulate the impact of technological change on labor markets and income distribution. It finds that technological advances offers prospects for stronger productivity and growth, but brings risks of increased income polarization. This calls for inclusive policies tailored to country-specific circumstances and preferences, such as investment in human capital to facilitate retooling of low-skilled workers so that they can partake in the gains of technological change, and redistributive policies (such as differentiated income tax cuts) to help reallocate gains. Policies are also needed to facilitate the process of adjustment.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Labor --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Professional Labor Markets --- Occupational Licensing --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Income --- National accounts --- Unskilled labor --- Labor share --- Labor force --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Mexico --- Income economics
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Public debt-to-GDP ratios have undergone substantial fluctuations over both the short and long term. Most recently, global debt-to-GDP ratios peaked at 100% on average in 2020 due to COVID-19, retracting substantially by 2022. To understand what drives these movements, we propose a structural approach to debt decompositions based on a SVAR identified with narrative sign restrictions. We find that GDP growth shocks and the corresponding comovements of macroeconomic variables are the key drivers of debt to GDP, accounting for 40% of the observed yearly variation in 17 advanced economies since the 1980s. Discretionary fiscal policy changes, in turn, account for less than 20% of the observed changes. The analysis also finds the primary balance multiplier on GDP to be very small. We reconcile our results with the literature, underscoring the importance of accurate shock identification and accounting for cross-country heterogeneity.
Business Fluctuations --- Currency crises --- Cycles --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, Public --- Diffusion Processes --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Econometric analysis --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Econometrics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Fiscal consolidation --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stance --- Informal sector --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Macroeconomics --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models --- Multiple Variables: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt --- State Space Models --- Structural vector autoregression --- Time-Series Models --- Vector autoregression
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This paper assesses the macroeconomic and distributional impact of personal income tax (PIT) reforms in the U.S. drawing on a multi-sector heterogenous agents model in which consumers have non-homothetic preferences and sectors differ in terms of their relative labor and skill intensity. The model is calibrated to key characteristics of the US economy. We find that (i) PIT cuts stimulate growth but the supply side effects are never large enough to offset the revenue loss from lower marginal tax rates; (ii) PIT cuts do “trickle-down” the income distribution: tax cuts stimulate demand for non-tradable services which raise the wages and employment prospects of low-skilled workers even if the tax cut is not directly incident on them; (iii) A revenue neutral tax plan that reduces PIT for middle-income groups, raises the consumption tax, and expands the Earned Income Tax Credit can have modestly positive effects on growth while reducing income polarization; (iv) The growth effects from lower income taxes are concentrated in non-tradable service sectors although the increased demand for tradable goods generate positive spillovers to other countries; (v) Tax cuts targeted to higher income groups have a stronger growth impact than tax cuts for middle income households but significantly worsen income polarization, even after taking into account trickle-down effects and an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit.
Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Fiscal Policy --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Labor Economics: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Income --- Consumption --- Labor --- Income and capital gains taxes --- Consumption taxes --- National accounts --- Taxes --- Personal income tax --- Economics --- Labor economics --- Income tax --- Spendings tax --- United States --- Income economics
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Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers a better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals than other financing options, including those of raising social security contributions, debt financing, and a uniform increase in health and long-term care copayments.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Demography --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Fiscal Policy --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Health: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Population & demography --- Health economics --- Consumption taxes --- Income --- Public debt --- Aging --- Health --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Population and demographics --- Spendings tax --- Debts, Public --- Population aging --- Japan
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This paper quantifies the costs of a permanent increase in debt to GDP. We employ a deterministic, overlapping generations model with two assets and no risk of default. The two assets are public debt and private (productive) capital. We assume that the return on private capital equals the interest rate on public debt plus an exogenously given spread. Employing a analytical version of the model we show an example in which a permanent rise in the public debt ratio leads to a significant reduction in steady-state GDP even as r
Bonds
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Capacity
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Capital
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Currency crises
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Debt Management
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Debt
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Debts, Public
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Economic & financial crises & disasters
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Economics of specific sectors
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Economics
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Economics: General
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Expenditure
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Expenditures, Public
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Financial institutions
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Fiscal Policy
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General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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Government debt management
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Informal sector
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Intangible Capital
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Intangible capital
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Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
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Investment & securities
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Investment
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Investments: Bonds
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Investments: General
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Macroeconomics
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National accounts
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National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
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Public debt
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Public finance & taxation
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Public Finance
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Public financial management (PFM)
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Saving and investment
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Sovereign bonds
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Sovereign Debt
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We quantitatively investigate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of fiscal consolidations in low-income countries (LICs) through value added tax (VAT), personal income tax (PIT), and corporate income tax (CIT). We extend the standard heterogeneous agents incomplete markets model by including multiple sectors and rural-urban distinction to capture salient features of LICs. We find that overall, VAT has the least efficiency costs but is highly regressive, while PIT impacts the economy in the opposite way with CIT staying in between. Cash transfers targeting rural households mitigate the negative distributional impacts of VAT most effectively, while public investment leads to little redistribution.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Fiscal Policy --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Public finance & taxation --- Manufacturing industries --- Consumption --- Revenue administration --- Value-added tax --- Manufacturing --- Income --- National accounts --- Taxes --- Economic sectors --- Economics --- Revenue --- Spendings tax --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of
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The formal launch of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) sets the global development agenda through 2030, placing significant emphasis on promoting social and environmental sustainability alongside economic growth and poverty reduction. Meeting the SDGs will require actions across a wide range of areas by both national governments and the international community. This paper examines the types of policies that developing countries will need to implement to foster economic transformation, to promote economic and social inclusion, and to meet key environmental objectives. Reducing inequality, achieving gender equity, and pricing energy and water resources appropriately receive particular attention.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Education: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Labor Economics: General --- Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change --- Industrial Price Indices --- Education --- Energy industries & utilities --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Income inequality --- Energy pricing --- Labor --- Structural transformation --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Income distribution --- Expenditures, Public --- Labor economics --- Economic development --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of --- Income economics
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The Covid-19 pandemic has aggravated the tension between large development needs in infrastructure and scarce public resources. To alleviate this tension and promote a strong and job-rich recovery from the crisis, Africa needs to mobilize more financing from and to the private sector.
Public-private sector cooperation --- Infrastructure (Economics) --- Economic development --- South Africa --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Sustainable Development --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Finance: General --- Economic Development: General --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Political economy --- International institutions --- Public finance & taxation --- Development economics & emerging economies --- National accounts --- Private investment --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Expenditure --- Income --- Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) --- Development --- Sustainable development --- Saving and investment
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This paper explores the feasibility of an idea proposed first by the German Council of Economic Experts in 2011 and revisited by Italian and French authorities in 2021: the one-off mutualization of some European legacy debt through the creation of a European Debt Management Agency (EDMA). The paper does not argue in favor or against these proposals or make a proposal of its own. Rather it outlines a conceptual framework that can be used to quantify the contours of mutualization proposals and draws lessons from the debt assumption in the United States in 1790. The framework suggests that by capitalizing the convenience yield on European-wide safe assets, the EDMA could issue up to 15 percent of euro area GDP, helping to put national debts on a sounder trajectory. The analysis suggests that, without mutualization, some euro area countries are likely to experience decreasing debt-to-GDP ratios over the forecast period. This is not the case for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, and Spain, where further fiscal consolidation would be needed. For these countries, we consider the effects of a debt mutualization equivalent to 26 percent of their GDP. For Italy, this operation alone is enough to ensure a decreasing debt-to-GDP path. For the others, the news is more mixed: while the additional fiscal consolidation is smaller, 1.3 to 2.3 percent of GDP are still required to reduce debt with 95 percent probability.
Italy --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- Exports and Imports --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- International economics --- Public debt --- Asset and liability management --- Fiscal policy --- External debt --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External
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Despite sustained economic growth and rapid poverty reductions, income inequality remains stubbornly high in many low-income developing countries. This pattern is a concern as high levels of inequality can impair the sustainability of growth and macroeconomic stability, thereby also limiting countries’ ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals. This underscores the importance of understanding how policies aimed at boosting economic growth affect income inequality. Using empirical and modeling techniques, the note confirms that macro-structural policies aimed at raising growth payoffs in low-income developing countries can have important distributional consequences, with the impact dependent on both the design of reforms and on country-specific economic characteristics. While there is no one-size-fits-all recipe, the note explores how governments can address adverse distributional consequences of reforms by designing reform packages to make pro-growth policies also more inclusive.
Birth control --- Developing countries. --- Emerging nations --- Fourth World --- Global South --- LDC's --- Least developed countries --- Less developed countries --- Newly industrialized countries --- Newly industrializing countries --- NICs (Newly industrialized countries) --- Third World --- Underdeveloped areas --- Underdeveloped countries --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Agribusiness --- Agricultural economics --- Agricultural industries --- Agricultural sector --- Agriculture: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Economic sectors --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- Income --- Macroeconomics --- National accounts --- Public finance & taxation --- Spendings tax --- Taxation --- Taxes --- Value-added tax --- Honduras
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