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In the 2000s, the Flemish government developed a groundwater flow model for the Maas system in Flanders to assess vulnerabilities and the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the aquifer. Yet, the stationary time discretization of the model limited its usefulness as only specific and time-constant conditions could be simulated with this model. In this thesis, the mentioned steady-state model was adapted to a transient configuration, calibrated and validated for the period of analysis 2008-2019. For this, the Python package FloPy was used to construct the model, to run MODFLOW-2005 and to postprocess the numerical groundwater flow. Climatic datasets where processed and adapted to the space and time discretization of the model. And recharge was simulated using the steady state recharge model WetSpass, adapting its long-term average patterns of surface runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge to time variant conditions. Later, this transient model was used to assess possible effects of two main water pressures on the groundwater system, as environmental policy measures (water abstractions) and climate change. For this, scenario analysis was conducted considering that water availability in Belgium will be affected by changes in climatic variables as precipitation and evapotranspiration, and its repercussion on groundwater resources. Thus, these variables were perturbed using quantile perturbation technique for constructing tailored scenarios, using RCM simulation data from the PRUDENCE project and SRES scenarios A2 and B2. Additionally, water management scenarios were assessed by assuming an increase in the permits for the extraction of groundwater by different users in the system. Later, climate change and abstraction scenarios were combined and used as input in the transient model, where impacts on groundwater components were analyzed. Results indicated that recharge in the study area is likely to diminish, even under future wet scenarios. And that under increased abstraction scenarios, groundwater levels are prone to decrease.

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Book history --- Graphics industry --- draftsmen [artists] --- typography