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This paper investigates the factors behind the significant improvement in Brazil's external accounts and wide fluctuations of the real exchange rate since the floating of the real in 1999. Particular attention is devoted to the strong appreciation of the real from 2003-05. Econometric estimates of of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model for Brazil show that most of this appreciation was an equilibrium response to improved economic fundamentals.

Balance of trade -- Brazil. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Foreign exchange -- Brazil. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Foreign exchange --- Balance of trade --- Deficits, Trade --- Trade, Balance of --- Trade balance --- Trade deficits --- Trade surpluses --- Surpluses, Trade --- Cambistry --- Currency exchange --- Exchange, Foreign --- Foreign currency --- Foreign exchange problem --- Foreign money --- Forex --- FX (Finance) --- International exchange --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Mercantile system --- Payment --- International finance --- Currency crises --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- International economics --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Current account --- Interest rates --- Brazil

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This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Production and Operations Management --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Imports --- Exports --- Real effective exchange rates --- Capacity utilization --- Exchange rates --- International trade --- Production --- Industrial capacity --- Brazil

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This paper provides the first comprehensive empirical analysis of agricultural trade using a gravity model. The data set covers bilateral trade in agricultural goods for 152 countries over the periods 1990-93 and 1999-2002. The estimations support claims that protectionism and distortive subsidies to agriculture remain widespread in more developed nations, which are shown to import less and export more agricultural products than expected given other economic, political, and geographic determinants of trade. However, some developing regions that are often thought to be the main victims of industrial-country protectionism are also found to be relatively closed to agricultural trade.

Agriculture and state -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Protectionism -- Econometric models. --- Subsidies -- Econometric models. --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Agribusiness --- Agriculture: General --- Trade: General --- Agricultural Policy --- Food Policy --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Agricultural law --- Agricultural commodities --- Agricultural policy --- Agricultural exports --- Imports --- Agricultural imports --- Farm produce --- Agriculture and state --- Exports --- United States --- Protectionism --- Subsidies --- Econometric models.

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Political sociology --- Politics

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