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This book systematically and thoroughly covers the vast literature on the nonparametric and semiparametric statistics and econometrics that has evolved over the last five decades. Within this framework this is the first book to discuss the principles of the nonparametric approach to the topics covered in a first year graduate course in econometrics, e.g. regression function, heteroskedasticity, simultaneous equations models, logit-probit and censored models. Nonparametric and semiparametric methods potentially offer considerable reward to applied researchers, owing to the methods' ability to adapt to many unknown features of the data. Professors Pagan and Ullah provide intuitive explanations of difficult concepts, heuristic developments of theory, and empirical examples emphasizing the usefulness of the modern nonparametric approach. The book should provide a new perspective on teaching and research in applied subjects in general and econometrics and statistics in particular.
Mathematical statistics --- Quantitative methods (economics) --- Econometrics. --- Mathematical statistics. --- Economics --- Econométrie --- Statistique mathématique --- Economie politique --- Statistical methods. --- Méthodes statistiques --- Econometrics --- Statistical methods --- 330.115 --- AA / International- internationaal --- 303.5 --- 330.015195 --- -Economic theory --- Political economy --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Mathematics --- Statistical inference --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Probabilities --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Economics, Mathematical --- Econometrie --- Theorie van correlatie en regressie. (OLS, adjusted LS, weighted LS, restricted LS, GLS, SLS, LIML, FIML, maximum likelihood). Parametric and non-parametric methods and theory (wiskundige statistiek). --- -Econometrie --- 330.115 Econometrie --- -Mathematics --- Economic theory --- Econométrie --- Statistique mathématique --- Méthodes statistiques --- Economic statistics --- Theorie van correlatie en regressie. (OLS, adjusted LS, weighted LS, restricted LS, GLS, SLS, LIML, FIML, maximum likelihood). Parametric and non-parametric methods and theory (wiskundige statistiek) --- Business, Economy and Management --- Economics - Statistical methods
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This book provides a unified analysis of the theory of economic policy, presenting static and dynamic aspects of both the fixed and flexible objective policy problems. The authors conceive of the abstract theory of economic policy as the interaction of policy possibilities with policy-making requirements. Policy possibilities are depicted by a known, linear model relating sets of targets, instruments and other variables. Policy-making requirements are imposed in two forms: directly by nominating a specific fixed target in the tradition of Tinbergen; and indirectly by specifying preferences about targets - the flexible target associated with Theil.
Economic policy and planning (general) --- Economic policy. --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Politique économique --- Statique et dynamique (Sciences sociales) --- Economic policies --- 338.22 --- Economic policy --- AA / International- internationaal --- 331.31 --- 330.00 --- Dynamics and statics (Social sciences) --- Equilibrium (Social sciences) --- Economics --- Social evolution --- Social sciences --- Sociology --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Economische organisatieleer. Economisch beleid. Economische politiek --- Economisch beleid. --- Economische en sociale theorieën: algemeenheden. --- 338.22 Economische organisatieleer. Economisch beleid. Economische politiek --- Politique économique --- Economische en sociale theorieën: algemeenheden --- Economisch beleid --- Economische politiek en planning (algemeen) --- Business, Economy and Management
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The global financial crisis highlighted the impact on macroeconomic outcomes of recurrent events like business and financial cycles, highs and lows in volatility, and crashes and recessions. At the most basic level, such recurrent events can be summarized using binary indicators showing if the event will occur or not. These indicators are constructed either directly from data or indirectly through models. Because they are constructed, they have different properties than those arising in microeconometrics, and how one is to use them depends a lot on the method of construction.This book presents the econometric methods necessary for the successful modeling of recurrent events, providing valuable insights for policymakers, empirical researchers, and theorists. It explains why it is inherently difficult to forecast the onset of a recession in a way that provides useful guidance for active stabilization policy, with the consequence that policymakers should place more emphasis on making the economy robust to recessions. The book offers a range of econometric tools and techniques that researchers can use to measure recurrent events, summarize their properties, and evaluate how effectively economic and statistical models capture them. These methods also offer insights for developing models that are consistent with observed financial and real cycles.This book is an essential resource for students, academics, and researchers at central banks and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
E-books --- Economics --- Statistical methods --- Economic statistics --- Econometrics --- Statistical methods. --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics. --- Econometric models. --- Business cycles --- Mathematical models. --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Mathematical models --- Markov switching models. --- amplitudes. --- binary states. --- bivariate series. --- business cycles. --- contraction. --- cycles financial series. --- cycles. --- dating cycles. --- dating. --- durations. --- economic activity. --- economic models. --- economic recessions. --- economy. --- event indicators. --- expansion. --- financial cycles. --- financial shocks. --- fluctuation. --- global financial crisis. --- linear autoregression. --- macroeconomy. --- microeconometrics. --- model-based rules. --- multiple series. --- oscillation. --- peaks. --- policymakers. --- prediction. --- recession. --- recurrent events. --- recurrent states. --- regression. --- statistics. --- synchronization. --- time series. --- time. --- troughs. --- univariate series. --- volatility.
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This paper compares several statistical models for monthly stock return volatility. The focus is on U.S. data from 1834-19:5 because the post-1926 data have been analyzed in more detail by others. Also, the Great Depression had levels of stock volatility that are inconsistent with stationary models for conditional heteroskedasticity, We show the importance of nonlinearities in stock return behavior that are not captured by conventional ARCH or GARCH models. We also show the nonstationariry of stock volatility, even over the 1834-1925 period.
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