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Book
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1484326148 1484326113 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.


Book
Tax Revenue Growth and Formalization : Republic of Kosovo
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Among western Balkan countries, Kosovo had the largest growth in tax revenue in percent of GDP over 2021-22. While part of this strong performance could be explained by increased activity, surging inflation, and buoyance, a sizable part of it is related to increased formalization. This paper analyzes the extent to which tax revenue increases may have grown due to gains in formalization, both of workers and businesses, by applying a simple accounting framework to disentangle the sources of tax collection increases.


Book
Tax Revenue Growth and Formalization : Republic of Kosovo
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Among western Balkan countries, Kosovo had the largest growth in tax revenue in percent of GDP over 2021-22. While part of this strong performance could be explained by increased activity, surging inflation, and buoyance, a sizable part of it is related to increased formalization. This paper analyzes the extent to which tax revenue increases may have grown due to gains in formalization, both of workers and businesses, by applying a simple accounting framework to disentangle the sources of tax collection increases.


Book
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.


Book
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 9798400235900 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.


Book
Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The auto sector is macro-critical in many European countries and constitutes one of the main supply chains in the region. Using a multi-sector and multi-country general equilibrium model, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of global pandemic-induced labor supply shocks—both directly and via supply chains—during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the auto sector and aggregate activity in Europe. Our results suggest that these labor supply shocks would have a significant adverse impact on the major auto producers in Europe, with one-third of the decline in the value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks in the services sector have a bigger adverse impact, reflecting their larger size and associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other European countries are larger than those that originate outside the region, though the latter are still sizable.


Book
The Future of PPPs in the Western Balkans
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.


Book
Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 9798400201301 Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The auto sector is macro-critical in many European countries and constitutes one of the main supply chains in the region. Using a multi-sector and multi-country general equilibrium model, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of global pandemic-induced labor supply shocks—both directly and via supply chains—during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the auto sector and aggregate activity in Europe. Our results suggest that these labor supply shocks would have a significant adverse impact on the major auto producers in Europe, with one-third of the decline in the value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks in the services sector have a bigger adverse impact, reflecting their larger size and associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other European countries are larger than those that originate outside the region, though the latter are still sizable.


Book
The Future of PPPs in the Western Balkans
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 9798400233845 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.

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