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Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Banks and Banking --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Industrial production --- Short term interest rates --- Long term interest rates --- Unemployment rate --- Consumption --- Production --- Financial services --- National accounts --- Interest rates --- Industries --- Economics --- United States
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Among western Balkan countries, Kosovo had the largest growth in tax revenue in percent of GDP over 2021-22. While part of this strong performance could be explained by increased activity, surging inflation, and buoyance, a sizable part of it is related to increased formalization. This paper analyzes the extent to which tax revenue increases may have grown due to gains in formalization, both of workers and businesses, by applying a simple accounting framework to disentangle the sources of tax collection increases.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Revenue administration --- Taxes --- Tax policy --- International agencies --- Revenue --- Tax administration and procedure --- Income tax --- Spendings tax --- Kosovo, Republic of
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Among western Balkan countries, Kosovo had the largest growth in tax revenue in percent of GDP over 2021-22. While part of this strong performance could be explained by increased activity, surging inflation, and buoyance, a sizable part of it is related to increased formalization. This paper analyzes the extent to which tax revenue increases may have grown due to gains in formalization, both of workers and businesses, by applying a simple accounting framework to disentangle the sources of tax collection increases.
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After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Foreign Exchange --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Food prices --- Commodity price shocks --- Energy prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Bosnia and Herzegovina
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After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Bosnia and Herzegovina --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Foreign Exchange --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Food prices --- Commodity price shocks --- Energy prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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The auto sector is macro-critical in many European countries and constitutes one of the main supply chains in the region. Using a multi-sector and multi-country general equilibrium model, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of global pandemic-induced labor supply shocks—both directly and via supply chains—during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the auto sector and aggregate activity in Europe. Our results suggest that these labor supply shocks would have a significant adverse impact on the major auto producers in Europe, with one-third of the decline in the value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks in the services sector have a bigger adverse impact, reflecting their larger size and associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other European countries are larger than those that originate outside the region, though the latter are still sizable.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Economic Theory --- Diseases: Contagious --- Industries: Automobile --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Automobiles --- Other Transportation Equipment --- Related Parts and Equipment --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Transport industries --- Labor supply --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Automobile industry --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Supply and demand --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Automobile industry and trade --- Slovak Republic
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Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial administration & public finance law --- Fiscal risks --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public investment spending --- Expenditure --- PPP legislation --- Risks of public-private partnership --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Fiscal policy --- Public investments --- Albania
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The auto sector is macro-critical in many European countries and constitutes one of the main supply chains in the region. Using a multi-sector and multi-country general equilibrium model, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of global pandemic-induced labor supply shocks—both directly and via supply chains—during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the auto sector and aggregate activity in Europe. Our results suggest that these labor supply shocks would have a significant adverse impact on the major auto producers in Europe, with one-third of the decline in the value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks in the services sector have a bigger adverse impact, reflecting their larger size and associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other European countries are larger than those that originate outside the region, though the latter are still sizable.
Slovak Republic --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Economic Theory --- Diseases: Contagious --- Industries: Automobile --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Automobiles --- Other Transportation Equipment --- Related Parts and Equipment --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Transport industries --- Labor supply --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Automobile industry --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Supply and demand --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Automobile industry and trade
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Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.
Albania --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial administration & public finance law --- Fiscal risks --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public investment spending --- Expenditure --- PPP legislation --- Risks of public-private partnership --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Fiscal policy --- Public investments
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