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Author of the acclaimed work Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory, Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on changes in risk. They trade on changes in beliefs about risk, and in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself, misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances.Sparking a revolution in the mindset of the investment professional, Osband recasts the market as a learning machine rather than a knowledge machine. The market continually errs, corrects itself, and makes new errors. Respecting that process, without idolizing it, will promote wiser investment, trading, and regulation. With uncertainty embedded at its core, Osband's rational approach points to a finance theory worthy of twenty-first-century investing.
Financial risk management. --- Financial risk --- 658.15 --- 658.155 --- Business risk (Finance) --- Money risk (Finance) --- Risk --- Risk management --- Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- E-books --- Financial risk. --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.91 --- 305.6 --- 305.975 --- 339.40 --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles. --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen. --- Monte Carlo methods. Experimenten en resultaten. --- Vermogenbeheer. financiële analyse (algemeenheden). --- 658.15 Private financial management. Financial administration of enterprises --- Financial risk management --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles --- Monte Carlo methods. Experimenten en resultaten --- Vermogenbeheer. financiële analyse (algemeenheden)
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When a formerly centrally-planned economy frees prices and allows or compels producers to respond to market signals, conventional measures tend to severely overstate short–run output decline and inflation. In part the overstatement stems from neglect of private sector activity, or from belated recognition of inflation previously disguised as quality improvements. Even when individual prices and outputs are correctly measured, however, shifts in relative prices consequent to price decontrol create a serious aggregation problem. Moreover, the standard indices ignore the deflationary trends in black markets. Superior growth and inflation indices are devised using a combination of official and black market prices.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economics: General --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure --- Money --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Informal economy --- Price indexes --- Price controls --- Monetary base --- Economic sectors --- Prices --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Government policy --- Money supply --- Russian Federation
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It is not unusual for reforming socialist economies to relax wage controls without hardening budget constraints on enterprises or freeing consumer goods prices. This policy can be dangerously destabilizing. While higher wages permit workers to purchase more of some goods, they also tend to exacerbate shortages and to breed waste and corruption. Beyond a certain level, economy-wide wage hikes will worsen worker welfare. This is true regardless of whether deficit goods are strictly rationed, are sold randomly at official prices to queuing workers, or are offered to workers by “insiders” only at black market prices. However, the form of allocation does influence output and worker welfare.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Criminology --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- Labor Economics: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Factor and Product Markets --- Industry Studies --- Population --- Incomplete Markets --- Labour --- income economics --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Wages --- Price controls --- Income --- Crime --- Prices --- National accounts --- Labor economics --- Government policy --- Russian Federation
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This paper provides an analytic overview of independent currency authorities (ICAs), sometimes called currency boards. ICAs issue and redeem domestic currency against an exchange standard on demand and back such operations through a 100 percent marginal foreign reserve cover. They also impose significant constraints on the banking system and the budget of the country that operates them. When supporting institutions have been put in place, ICAs appear to have promoted price stability, foreign trade, saving, and investment.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: Other --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Currencies --- Currency boards --- Reserve currencies --- Money --- Prices --- International reserves --- Central banks --- Banks and banking --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Singapore
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Energy exports, which are already the primary source of Soviet convertible currency earnings and an important contributor to the budget, could bring in much more revenue if the Soviet Union were to reduce its extremely high levels of energy consumption. To encourage this process, energy prices need to be raised substantially. Under plausible assumptions, it is shown that an increase in prices could yield sizable foreign exchange earnings. Large increases in energy prices could, however, threaten the solvency of industrial enterprises, precipitate major economic and social dislocation, and severely strain interrepublican economic relationships.
Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Prices --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Government Policy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Investment & securities --- Energy prices --- Oil prices --- Consumption --- Price adjustments --- Oil --- National accounts --- Commodities --- Economics --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Russian Federation
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