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Following Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments before Congress that the FOMC may ‘take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained’, US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) reversed. These events raised concerns that further increases in US interest rates could trigger sharp changes of capital flows that would be followed by financial crises in EMEs. To assess this possibility, this paper studies the association between US long term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to EMEs. It finds that, indeed, cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including global risk aversion and long term interest rates in the United States. In particular, higher US long term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of net capital inflows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. In particular, economies with relatively low levels of gross outflows, with a high ratio of short-term debt to international reserves or with weak domestic fundamentals are more vulnerable to the risk of a classic sudden stop à la Calvo. This Working Paper relates to the OECD Economic Survey of the United States 2014 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-unitedstates. htm)

Finance and Investment --- Economics --- United States

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The Chilean economy has had an extraordinary performance over the last decades with strong growth and declining poverty rates. However, the economy is now slowing at a time when inequality remains very high, making future social progress challenging. This paper discusses how to achieve greater social inclusiveness against the background of weaker medium-term growth. First, it argues that Chile needs to increase income redistribution through its tax and transfer system towards levels prevailing in other OECD increases. Although existing social transfers are effective in combatting poverty, their size remains small and many households at the bottom of the ladder are not reached by them. Second, the paper argues that labour earnings should be less disparate, as they explain around 70% of income inequality. This should be done by updating labour legislation, but also by empowering low-skill workers and enabling them to increase their productivity, through the acquisition of adequate skills. Finally, focus should be placed on closing wide gender gaps.This working paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Chile

Economics --- Chile

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The Chilean economy has had an extraordinary performance over the last decades with strong growth and declining poverty rates. However, the economy is now slowing at a time when inequality remains very high, making future social progress challenging. This paper discusses how to achieve greater social inclusiveness against the background of weaker medium-term growth. First, it argues that Chile needs to increase income redistribution through its tax and transfer system towards levels prevailing in other OECD increases. Although existing social transfers are effective in combatting poverty, their size remains small and many households at the bottom of the ladder are not reached by them. Second, the paper argues that labour earnings should be less disparate, as they explain around 70% of income inequality. This should be done by updating labour legislation, but also by empowering low-skill workers and enabling them to increase their productivity, through the acquisition of adequate skills. Finally, focus should be placed on closing wide gender gaps.This working paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Chile

Economics --- Chile

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East Asia has experienced a dramatic decrease in output growth volatility over the past 20 years. This is good news, as output growth volatility affects poor households because of coping strategies that have long-term, harmful consequences, and the overall economy through its negative impact on economic growth. This paper investigates the factors behind this long decline in volatility, and derives lessons about ways to mitigate renewed upward pressure in face of the financial crisis. The authors show that if, on the one hand, high trade openness has sustained economic growth in the past several decades, on the other hand, it has made countries more vulnerable to external fluctuations. Although less frequent terms of trade shocks and more stable growth rates of trading partners have helped to reduce volatility in the past, the same external factors are now putting renewed pressure on volatility. The way forward seems therefore to be to counterbalance the external upward pressure on volatility by improving domestic factors. Elements under domestic control that can help countries deal with high volatility include more accountable institutions, better regulated financial markets, and more stable fiscal and monetary policies.

Business cycle --- Capita growth --- Crisis volatility --- Economic Conditions and Volatility --- Economic growth --- Economic outlook --- Economic performance --- Emerging Markets --- Financial markets --- Fluctuations --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Growth volatility --- High trade openness --- Income --- Low-income countries --- Macroeconomic volatility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary policies --- Private Sector Development --- Recessions --- Standard deviation --- Trade shocks --- World economy

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This paper presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to 2060, taking into account international spillovers. The paper highlights that comparative advantage in terms of factor endowments matters for trade specialisation, although framework and trade policies also play a role. For instance, tariffs on intermediate inputs are found to adversely affect trade with this adverse effect found to have increased over time, likely reflecting expanding global supply chains magnifying the impact of tariffs. The forward-looking analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions, reflecting faster growth in these countries. Multilateral global trade liberalisation could raise world trade by 15% by 2060 relative to the status quo, whereas regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries only would raise world trade by 4% due to trade diversion.

Economics --- Trade