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This paper analyzes the domestic and external drivers of local staple food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data on domestic market prices of the five most consumed staple foods from 15 countries, this paper finds that external factors drive food price inflation, but domestic factors can mitigate these vulnerabilities. On the external side, our estimations show that Sub-Saharan African countries are highly vulnerable to global food prices, with the pass-through from global to local food prices estimated close to unity for highly imported staples. On the domestic side, staple food price inflation is lower in countries with greater local production and among products with lower consumption shares. Additionally, adverse shocks such as natural disasters and wars bring 1.8 and 4 percent staple food price surges respectively beyond generalized price increases. Economic policy can lower food price inflation, as the strength of monetary policy and fiscal frameworks, the overall economic environment, and transport constraints in geographically challenged areas account for substantial cross-country differences in staple food prices.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Foreign Exchange --- Exports and Imports --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Commodity Markets --- Agricultural Policy --- Food Policy --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Trade: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Food prices --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Real effective exchange rates --- Imports --- International trade --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of

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Since 2000, there have been three major global slowdowns, with the latest and most pronounced episode triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, many countries have faced major adverse events including natural disasters, wars, and financial crises, all of which can lead to long-lasting harm to productivity. Wars inflict particularly severe damage to productivity, while financial crises also lead to substantial losses, especially accompanied by a rapid build-up of debt. The greater frequency of natural disasters, especially climate disasters, means that they have the largest aggregate impact on productivity, as natural disasters have occurred most often and their frequency has doubled since 2000. Global adverse events can have large sustained negative effects on productivity through dislocating labor, tightening of credit, disrupting value chains, and decreasing innovation. Policies to counter the negative consequences of adverse shocks include accommodative fiscal policies, such as reconstruction spending on resilient infrastructure; transparent governance; efficient use of relief funds; as well as growth-friendly structural reforms. Appropriate policies and regulations concerning finance, construction, and environmental protection can help reduce the frequency of adverse shocks.

Climate Disaster --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disaster --- Disaster Management --- Economic Conditions and Volatility --- Economic Growth --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Global Slowdown --- Labor Dislocation --- Local Projections --- Macroeconomic Management --- Natural Disasters --- Pandemic Impact --- Productivity --- Tight Credit --- Value Chain