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This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Foreign Exchange --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Arrears --- Early warning systems --- Probit models --- External debt --- Currency crises --- Financial crises --- Econometric analysis --- Debt service --- Debts, External --- Crisis management --- Econometric models --- Zimbabwe