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Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Food prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Supply shocks --- Price controls --- Economic theory --- Price indexes --- Supply and demand --- Government policy --- Mongolia
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This paper explores the extent to which macroprudential tools can be used to manage banking sector risks in Mongolia, a commodity producing country exposed to both procyclical and cross-sectional financial sector risks. Loose fiscal policy, rising credit activity, and heightened risk appetite—attributable to the commodity boom—are fuelling price volatility in asset markets, posing significant risks to financial stability if left unchecked. Rising interconnectedness, potential increase in dollarization and concentrated exposures are compounding those risks. Macroprudential tools can complement fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to avoid the buildup of vulnerabilities in the banking sector.
Banks and banking --- Financial institutions --- Financial intermediaries --- Lending institutions --- Associations, institutions, etc. --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Money --- Evaluation. --- State supervision --- Mongolia --- Mongġol --- 몽골 --- Mongol Uls --- Монгол Улс --- Mongġol Ulus --- Mongolie --- Mongolii︠a︡ --- Монголия --- Mongolei --- BNMAU --- БНМАУ --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Mongol Ard Uls --- Bügd Nayramdah Mongol Ard Uls --- MNR --- МНР --- Mongolʹskai︠a︡ narodnai︠a︡ respublika --- Монгольская народная республика --- Meng-ku jen min kung ho kuo --- Menggu ren min gong he guo --- 蒙古人民共和國 --- Meng-ku --- Menggu --- 蒙古 --- Wai Meng-ku --- Mongolische Volksrepublik --- Mongoru Jimmin Kyōwakoku --- Mongol Népköztársaság --- Outer Mongolia --- Mongolia (Outer Mongolia) --- Mongolian People's Republic --- Mongolia (Mongolian People's Republic) --- République populaire de Mongolie --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Mongol Ard Ulsyn --- Mongolian Republic --- Mongoliet --- モンゴル --- Mongoru --- 外蒙古 --- Gaimōko --- 蒙古人民共和国 --- Mōko Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- モンゴル人民共和国 --- Mongoru Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- Inner Mongolia (China) --- Economic policy. --- Evaluation --- E-books --- Bu̇gu̇de Nayiramdaqu Mongġol Arad Ulus --- Mengguguo --- 蒙古国 --- Wai Menggu --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Systemic risk --- Financial sector stability --- Macroprudential policy --- Credit --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial risk management --- Financial services industry --- Economic policy
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