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Dissertation
Does where you stand depend on where you sit? Ministerial composition of national delegations and negotiating positions at the 2019 United Nations Climate Change Conference
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Leuven KU Leuven. Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen

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Abstract

The thesis aims to explore the possible relationship between the composition of national delegations, in terms of what ministries are represented, and the ambition of the delegation’s positions at the 2019 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP25). Inspired by assumptions of bureaucratic politics that different ministries approach the same issue with different sets of perspectives, tactics, expertise, and preferences, the study of these ministries allows us to understand where a delegation stands at the negotiation table. In particular, the thesis looks at the proportion of each ministry’s personnel relative to the delegation’s total number of negotiators. The thesis employs a mixed-method research design, with results of the quantitative cross-sectional study being explored by the qualitative case study. The cross-sectional study surveys the ministerial proportion and ambition of negotiating positions of 35 delegations at COP25. Correlational analysis through SPSS is performed to find any possible relationship. Two explanatory mechanisms are then formulated, one of which is tested by a case study on the Belize delegation. For the cross-sectional component, content analysis is the primary data collection method, because data related to country’s positions and delegation’s compositions can be found in official documents such as participants’ lists, reports of conference proceedings, and other submissions to UNFCCC bodies. Interview with a Belizean delegate, primary source documents, and academic articles provide information for the case study. Spearman’s rho is chosen to perform the correlational analysis because the presumed independent variables (proportions of each ministry’s personnel) have an interval value, while the dependent variables (ambitiousness of positions) have an ordinal, ranked value. Quantitative findings show that there is positive correlation between the presence of Environmental Ministry negotiators and ambition, (partially) negative correlation for the Foreign Ministry, and inconclusive evidence for the role of the Economic Ministry. Two causal mechanisms are proposed to explain how negotiators from these ministries may influence their delegation's ambition. For the Environmental Ministry, their officials are often tasked with issues deemed to be technical in nature. As Environmental Ministries are typically promoters of environmental regulation, the negotiators formulate a highly ambitious position for the issues under their jurisdiction. For the Foreign Ministry, diplomats tend to be entrusted with issues considered to have high political consequences. Due to their training which emphasizes pragmatism, these officials have a tendency to resort to bargaining behavior – which entails manipulative tactics, threats and rewards, may prompt them to arrive at the negotiating table with an unusually low ambition level. The case study of Belize gives weight to the causal mechanism for the Environmental Ministry above, which is especially applicable to developing countries which have high ambitions and are represented predominantly by this type of ministry. Further research could focus on longitudinal studies of many COPs so as to establish a strong causal mechanism, based on the framework suggested here. Another direction is to study how domestic actors develop, sustain and lose specific framings of international climatic issues, which could help use figure out a way to identity and support ambitious actors.

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