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Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

Natural disasters --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Economic aspects --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters --- Demography --- Valuation of Environmental Effects --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Growth --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Demographic Economics: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Population & demography --- Population and demographics --- Fiscal stance --- Trade balance --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Environment --- Fiscal policy --- International trade --- External debt --- Population --- Balance of trade --- Debts, External --- Solomon Islands

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The paper looks at feasible concrete action that can be taken by correspondent and respondent banks, money transfer operators, the Pacific authorities, the Australian and New Zealand authorities, and international organizations.

Correspondent banks --- Emigrant remittances --- Banks and banking --- Banks and banking. --- Correspondent banks. --- Emigrant remittances. --- Pacific Area. --- Banks, Correspondent --- Immigrant remittances --- Remittances, Emigrant --- Foreign exchange --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Asia-Pacific Region --- Asian and Pacific Council countries --- Asian-Pacific Region --- Pacific Ocean Region --- Pacific Region --- Pacific Rim --- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) --- Balance of payments --- Banks and Banking --- Banks --- Compliance costs --- Corporate crime --- Correspondent banking --- Crime --- Criminology --- Depository Institutions --- Development banks --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial services --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Industries: Financial Services --- International economics --- International finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Money laundering --- Mortgages --- Multilateral development institutions --- Public finance & taxation --- Remittances --- Revenue administration --- Tax administration and procedure --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Taxation --- White-collar crime --- New Zealand