Listing 1 - 3 of 3 |
Sort by
|
Choose an application
Choose an application
This paper examines the relationship between hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon revenues using a probabilistic panel model with data covering 30 resource-rich countries over 1992-2012. It also discusses policy implications for Uganda, a country with recently discovered oil reserves. The findings show that although an increase in hydrocarbon revenues is likely to crowd out non-resource revenues, improved institutional quality could dampen or reverse this effect. In general, regulatory quality, rule of law, government effectiveness, and political stability are critically important governance indicators. In light of Uganda's forthcoming exploitation of its oil, the odds of avoiding the crowding out of non-resource revenues are high with a substantial improvement of institutional quality in terms of political stability, regulatory quality, and government effectiveness. Currently, these indicators stand very low for Uganda as compared with Botswana.
Domestic Revenue Performance --- Oil Revenue --- Quality Of Institutions
Choose an application
In low-income, capital-scarce economies that face financial and fiscal constraints, managing revenues from newly found natural resources can be a daunting challenge. The policy debate is how to scale up public investment to meet huge needs in infrastructure without generating a higher public deficit, and avoid the Dutch disease. This paper uses an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that is compatible with low-income economies and calibrated on Ugandan's data to tackle this problem. The paper explores macroeconomic dynamics under three stylized fiscal policy approaches for managing resource windfalls: investing all in public capital, saving all in a sovereign wealth fund, and a sustainable-investing approach that proposes a constant share of resource revenues to finance public investment and the rest to be saved. The analysis finds that a gradual scaling-up of public investment yields the best outcome, as it minimizes macroeconomic volatility. The analysis then investigates the optimal oil share to use for public investment; the criterion minimizes a loss function that accounts for households' welfare and macroeconomic stability in an environment featuring oil price volatility. The findings show that, depending on the policy maker's preference for stability, 55 to 85 percent of oil windfalls should be invested.
Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomic Volatility --- Optimal Resource Allocation --- Public Investment --- Resource-Rich Developing Countries
Listing 1 - 3 of 3 |
Sort by
|