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This volume empirically analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on interest rates and the economy in the US, Japan, UK and Europe. Using an event-study methodology, the authors find that the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which focus primarily on bond purchases, are much more effective in lowering interest rates than those undertaken by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, which have relied more heavily on lending to private financial institutions. Using large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models they also analyze the impact of QE on the wider economy. They produce no-QE counterfactual forecasts that are compared with their corresponding baseline forecasts, incorporating the effects of QE on government bond spreads. Despite the failure of stimulating economic activities as a whole, the simulation results suggest that the unconventional monetary policies have a positive influence on industrial production in the US, UK and Japan. The authors’ analysis finds that QE contributes to the reduction in unemployment in the US and Japan, and a rise in inflation-expectations in the US, UK and Euro zone. However, evidence on QE’s effect on house prices, stock prices, consumer confidence, and exchange rate, is mixed and thus inconclusive.
Quantitative easing (Monetary policy) --- Monetary policy --- Inflation (Finance) --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Endogenous growth (Economics) --- Macroeconomics --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economic policy. --- Economics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economic growth. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Economic Growth. --- Economic Policy. --- Economic development --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse
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This paper analyzes the link between public investment, economic growth and debt sustainability in Sierra Leone using an inter-temporal macroeconomic model. In the model, public capital improves the productive capacity of private capital, generating positive medium and long term effects to increases in public investment. The model application indicates that a large increase in public investment would have positive macroeconomic effects in the medium term. However, since there is no free lunch, rigidities in tax adjustment would entail unrealistic and unachievable adjustment in the current spending to cover recurrent costs and ensure debt sustainability. A more ambitious increase in public investment would entail more fiscal adjustment, particularly if external commercial loans are secured to complement the adjustment. The model simulations also emphasize the importance of improvements in the structural economic conditions to reap growth dividends. In addition, even if the macroeconomic implications of public investment scaling-up can be favorable in the long term under changes in certain structural conditions, downside risks such as terms of trade shifts and Ebola-induced productivity shortfall expose the country to increased risk of unsustainable debt dynamics. This underscores the need to remove bottlenecks to growth and maintain prudent borrowing policies.
Economic development -- Sierra Leone -- Econometric models. --- Economic development -- Sierra Leone. --- Public investments -- Sierra Leone -- Econometric models. --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Sierra Leone -- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Institutions and Growth --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Public debt --- Fiscal consolidation --- Debt sustainability --- Expenditure --- Fiscal policy --- External debt --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Sierra Leone
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This volume empirically analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on interest rates and the economy in the US, Japan, UK and Europe. Using an event-study methodology, the authors find that the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which focus primarily on bond purchases, are much more effective in lowering interest rates than those undertaken by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, which have relied more heavily on lending to private financial institutions. Using large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models they also analyze the impact of QE on the wider economy. They produce no-QE counterfactual forecasts that are compared with their corresponding baseline forecasts, incorporating the effects of QE on government bond spreads. Despite the failure of stimulating economic activities as a whole, the simulation results suggest that the unconventional monetary policies have a positive influence on industrial production in the US, UK and Japan. The authors’ analysis finds that QE contributes to the reduction in unemployment in the US and Japan, and a rise in inflation-expectations in the US, UK and Euro zone. However, evidence on QE’s effect on house prices, stock prices, consumer confidence, and exchange rate, is mixed and thus inconclusive.
Macroeconomics --- Methodology of economics --- Economic growth --- Economic policy and planning (general) --- Economics --- Business management --- Business economics --- financieel management --- bedrijfseconomie --- Bayesian statistics --- economie --- economische politiek --- macro-economie --- economische groei --- Japan
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This book presents a comprehensive exploration of the state of infrastructure in Africa and provides an integrated analysis of the challenges the sector faces, based on extensive fieldwork across the continent, providing an important resource for researchers, students, policymakers and NGOs.
Infrastructure (Economics) --- Economic development --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Human settlements --- Public goods --- Public works --- Capital --- Capital, Social (Economics) --- Economic infrastructure --- Social capital (Economics) --- Social infrastructure --- Social overhead capital
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Social stratification --- Social change --- Africa
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To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.
Economic development --- Finance --- Financial crises --- Economic History --- Business & Economics --- South Africa --- Foreign economic relations. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Macroeconomics. --- International economics. --- Knowledge management. --- Investment banking. --- Securities. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- International Economics. --- Knowledge Management. --- Investments and Securities. --- Blue sky laws --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Investment securities --- Portfolio --- Scrip --- Securities --- Securities law --- Underwriting --- Investments --- Investment banking --- Banks and banking, Investment --- Investment banks --- Financial institutions --- Management of knowledge assets --- Management --- Information technology --- Intellectual capital --- Organizational learning --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Economics --- Law and legislation
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This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.
Econometrics. --- Economics. --- Political Economy/Economic Policy. --- African Economics. --- Financial Crises. --- International Finance. --- South Africa --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- Africa—Economic conditions. --- Financial crises. --- International finance. --- Economic Policy. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises
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To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.
Theory of knowledge --- Macroeconomics --- Foreign trade. International trade --- International finance --- Economics --- Capital structure --- banken --- kennismanagement --- economie --- financiering --- wereldeconomie --- investeringen --- macro-economie --- internationale economie
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