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A striking aspect of India's recent growth has been the dynamism of its services sector. In 2010, it accounted for 57 percent of the country's GDP and 25 percent of its total employment. The results do not conform to the growth experience of currently industrialized countries or other developing economies. Is the increasing share of the service sector in India's total output simply notional, as several activities that were earlier classified in the industrial sector are now subsumed in services' value added, or because the relative price of services has increased over time? No. The sector's growth is real - it is linked to household final demand, policy reforms and increased service exports. Is this service-led growth process sustainable? That remains an open question because the service sector is highly heterogeneous, ranging from software services and business process outsourcing to wholesale and retail trade and personal services. These subsectors vary considerably in the context of different economic characteristics that are important for development.
Service industries --- Industries --- E-books --- India. --- Bharat --- Bhārata --- Government of India --- Ḣindiston Respublikasi --- Inde --- Indië --- Indien --- Indii︠a︡ --- Indland --- Indo --- Republic of India --- Sāthāranarat ʻIndīa --- Yin-tu --- インド --- هند --- Индия --- Business, Economy and Management --- Economics
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There is a crisis of demand brewing around the globe as social distancing becomes the norm to counter the COVID-19 outbreak. So, which parts of the economy are most in the line of fire? Looking at jobs that can be done at home or that require a high degree of face-to-face interactions with consumers can capture complementary but distinct mechanisms to assess this vulnerability. This paper uses data on 900 job titles from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database for the United States to demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity in vulnerability across industries, income groups, and gender. First, industries vary in whether they emphasize face-to-face interactions and home-based work and the two do not always go hand-in-hand. Second, occupations that are less amenable to home-based work are largely concentrated among the lower wage deciles. Third, a larger share of women's employment is accounted for by occupations that are intensive in face-to-face interactions.
Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Face-To-Face Interaction --- Gender and Economics --- Home-Based Work --- Industrial Economics --- Inequality --- Labor Markets --- Occupational Hazard --- Personal Protective Equipment --- Work and Working Conditions --- Workplace Conditions
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The service sector accounted for two-thirds of economic growth in emerging market and developing economies over the past three decades. It consists of a wide range of activities, ranging from high-skilled offshorable services, such as information and communications technology (ICT) and professional services, to low-skilled "contact" services, such as retail and hospitality. The pandemic disrupted many low-skilled contact services that typically require face-to-face interactions between providers and consumers. High-skilled offshorable services were the least affected owing to the use of digital technology that enabled remote delivery. Increased digitalization has improved prospects for scale economies and innovation in the service sector that were previously constrained by the need for physical proximity and the lack of opportunities to augment labor with capital. Policies to support the diffusion of digital technologies could therefore further raise the growth potential of the service sector. Policies to improve market access for, and skills in, ICT and professional services could ease important constraints on growth opportunities in these high-skilled offshorable services that have best withstood the pandemic. The same holds true for policies, including regulatory reforms, that promote investment in low-skilled contact services, such as transportation, which have important linkages with the wider economy.
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Governments are resource and bandwidth constrained, and hence need to prioritize productivity-enhancing policies. To do so requires information on the nature and magnitude of market failures on the one hand, and government's capacity to redress them successfully on the other. The paper reviews perspectives on vertical (sectoral) and horizontal (factor markets, cluster) policies with an eye to both criteria. It first argues that the case for either cannot be made on the basis of the likelihood of successful implementation: for instance, educational and picking the winner types of policies both run the risks of capture and incompetent execution. However, the profession has been able to establish more convincing market failures for horizontal policies than for vertical policies. Most of the recent approaches to identifying failures around particular goods, the paper argues, are of limited help. Hence, for a given difficulty of execution, the former are generally to be preferred. A second critical message is that improving the quality of governance in terms of collecting information, coordination ability, and defending against capture is critical to successful implementation of productivity policies and should be central on the policy agenda.
Government Failures --- Industrial Policy --- Market Failures
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For decades, manufacturers around the world have outsourced production to countries with lower labor costs. However, there is a concern that robotization in high-income countries will challenge this shifting international division of labor known as the "flying geese" paradigm. Greenfield foreign direct investment decisions constitute a forward-looking indicator of where production is expected, rather than trade flows that reflect past investment decisions. Exploiting differences across countries and industries, the intensity of robot use in high-income countries has a positive impact on foreign direct investment growth from high-income countries to low- and middle-income countries over 2004-15. Past a threshold, however, increased robotization in high-income countries has a negative impact on foreign direct investment growth. Only 3 percent of the sample exceeds the threshold level beyond which further automation results in negative foreign direct investment growth and is consistent with re-shoring. For another 25 percent of the sample, the impact of robotization on the growth of foreign direct investment is positive, but at a rate that is declining. So, although these are early warning signs, automation in high-income countries has resulted in growing foreign direct investment for more than two-thirds of the sample under consideration. Some geese may be slowing, but for now, most continue to fly.
Automation --- Flying Geese Paradigm --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Global Value Chain --- Global Value Chains and Business Clustering --- International Economics and Trade --- Private Sector Development --- Robots --- Science and Technology Development --- Technology Innovation --- Trade Finance and Investment
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Internal labor migration rates in India have been largely static and low in recent times compared with those in other countries. This is a cause for concern because internal migration for economic reasons can promote the agglomeration of economic activity in more productive locations and directly contribute to reducing poverty through remittances. New evidence based on the India Human Development Survey, which provides a more recent source of data compared with the Census and other household surveys, shows that labor mobility is higher than previously estimated-the stock of labor migrants increased from 16 million in 2004-05 to 60 million in 2011-12. The absolute number of circular migrants, at more than 200 million in 2011-12, is also much higher than previously documented estimates. Tracking the same households between 2004-05 and 2011-12, empirical analysis based on the India Human Development Survey highlights several socioeconomic factors associated with the migration decision: household income, the availability of information, as well as community networks in source and destination areas. There is also a possible administrative dimension to interstate migration barriers, owing to domicile provisions for work and study, lack of portability of social benefits, and legal and other entitlements upon relocation.
Access of Poor to Social Services --- Consumption --- Disability --- Economic Assistance --- Educational Sciences --- Employment and Unemployment --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Inter-State Mobility --- Internal Migration --- Labor and Employment Law --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Mobility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Labor Markets --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Social Protections and Assistance --- Social Protections and Labor
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Labor-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing driven by the ready-made garments industry has transformed Bangladesh's economy. But with automation, changing trade patterns and servicification reducing the importance of wage costs globally, the creation of more sustainable jobs in the manufacturing sector now needs the upgradation of firms' capabilities and technology adoption. Drawing on the World Bank's "Bangladesh Firm-level Adoption of Technology Survey", this report shows that there is significant scope to improve the manufacturing sector's performance and future prospects by promoting the adoption of better technologies in firms. It discusses how Bangladesh can achieve this aim through policies that address informational barriers to the acquisition of capabilities in firms, leverage international connectivity for technology diffusion, and strengthen key markets and institutions that underpin firms investment in technology.
Access To Markets --- Export Competitiveness --- Industrial Economics --- Industry --- Innovation --- Labor Markets --- Science and Technology Development --- Social Protections and Labor --- Technology Innovation
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Been synonymous with development. However, the trend of premature deindustrialization and the spread of automation technologies associated with Industry 4.0 has raised concerns that the development model based on export-led manufacturing seen in East Asia will be harder for hitherto less industrialized countries to replicate in the future. Can services-led development be an alternative? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the features of manufacturing that were considered uniquely conducive for productivity growth - such as international trade, scale economies, inter-sectoral linkages, and innovation - are increasingly shared by the services sector. But services are not monolithic. The twin gains of productivity growth and large-scale job creation for relatively low-skilled workers are less likely to come together in any given services subsector. The promise of services-led development in the future will be strengthened to the extent that technological change reduces the trade-off between productivity and jobs, and growth opportunities in services with potential for high productivity do not depend on a manufacturing base. Considering technological change and linkages between sectors while differentiating across types of services, this book assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that maximize its potential--
Digital Technology --- Economic Development --- Economic Growth --- Industrialization --- Jobs --- Manufacturing Sector --- Productivity --- Services Sector --- Servicification --- Structural change --- Structural transformation
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