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Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
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ISBN: 1484351363 1484351312 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.


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Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral : NETHERLANDS
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.


Book
Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9781484351369 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D. C. International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.

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Book
Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral : NETHERLANDS
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9798400235573 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.

Keywords

Netherlands, The --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labor --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Globalization: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Other --- Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining: General --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Electric Utilities --- Gas Utilities --- Pipelines --- Water Utilities --- Economic Development: General --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Social Economics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Energy prices --- Consumer prices --- Fuel prices --- International agencies --- Income economics


Book
The spillover effects of a downturn in China's real estate investment
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1475549008 1475573537 1475560664 1283866935 1475575157 9781475560664 9781475575156 9781475549003 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/266 Publisher: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Dept.

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Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.


Book
Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU : Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1475555776 1475555733 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.


Book
Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU.
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 9781484368527 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D. C. International Monetary Fund

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Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU.

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Book
Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1484368525 1484368509 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.


Book
Loss of Correspondent Banking Relationships in the Caribbean : Trends, Impact, and Policy Options
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1484323947 1484323912 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Banks across the Caribbean have lost important Correspondent Banking Relationships (CBRs). The macroeconomic impact has so far been limited, in part because banks either have multiple relationships or have been successful in replacing lost CBRs. However, the cost of services has increased substantially, some services have been cut back, and some sectors have experienced reduced access. Policy options to address multiple drivers, including lower profitability and risk aversion by global banks, require tailored actions by several stakeholders.


Book
The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1513561308 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.

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