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This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.
Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Policy --- Foreign Exchange --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Finance --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Deposit rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Commercial banks --- Discount rates --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Financial crises --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Discount --- United States
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Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labor --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Globalization: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Other --- Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining: General --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Electric Utilities --- Gas Utilities --- Pipelines --- Water Utilities --- Economic Development: General --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Social Economics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Energy prices --- Consumer prices --- Fuel prices --- International agencies --- Netherlands, The
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Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.
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Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.
Netherlands, The --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labor --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Globalization: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Other --- Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining: General --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Electric Utilities --- Gas Utilities --- Pipelines --- Water Utilities --- Economic Development: General --- Commodity Markets --- Energy: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Social Economics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Energy prices --- Consumer prices --- Fuel prices --- International agencies --- Income economics
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Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.
Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Real estate investment --- Financial crises --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Investment in real estate --- Real property investment --- Crises --- Investments --- Land speculation --- Real estate business --- Real property --- Prices --- China --- Commerce. --- E-books --- Cadastral surveys --- Catastral surveys --- Freehold --- Limitations (Law) --- Property, Real --- Real estate --- Real estate law --- Realty --- Property --- Rent --- Law and legislation --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- International economics --- Commodity prices --- Exports --- Imports --- Metal prices --- Industrial production --- International trade --- Production --- Metals --- Industries --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.
Caribbean Area --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Nonperforming loans --- Foreign banks --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Commercial banks --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- Banks and banking --- Grenada
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Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU.
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This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.
Banks and Banking --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Monetary economics --- Commercial banks --- Nonperforming loans --- Distressed institutions --- Market risk --- Financial institutions --- Credit --- Money --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Banks and banking --- Loans --- Financial services industry --- Financial risk management --- Dominica
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Banks across the Caribbean have lost important Correspondent Banking Relationships (CBRs). The macroeconomic impact has so far been limited, in part because banks either have multiple relationships or have been successful in replacing lost CBRs. However, the cost of services has increased substantially, some services have been cut back, and some sectors have experienced reduced access. Policy options to address multiple drivers, including lower profitability and risk aversion by global banks, require tailored actions by several stakeholders.
Banks and Banking --- Criminology --- Taxation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Banking --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Public finance & taxation --- Correspondent banking --- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) --- Offshore financial centers --- Commercial banks --- Financial services --- Crime --- Financial institutions --- Compliance costs --- Revenue administration --- Banks and banking --- Correspondent banks --- Money laundering --- International finance --- Tax administration and procedure --- Belize --- White-collar crime
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The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.
State bankruptcy. --- Asset and liability management --- Bonds --- Business and Economics --- Climate --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Debt Management --- Debt restructuring --- Debt service --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics: General --- Environment --- Finance --- Financial crisis --- Financial institutions --- Financial instruments --- Financial Risk Management --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Global Warming --- Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, and Grants --- Health Behavior --- Health --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Bonds --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Public enterprises --- Securities --- Sovereign debt defaults --- Sovereign debt restructuring --- Sovereign Debt --- Barbados
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